So it looks like there'll be duelling press releases throughout the summer in the Conan O'Brien vs David Letterman battle for supremacy. But I've just learned that what wasn't in either network's PR sheets is that Conan is now garnering the
smallest audience for The Tonight Show ever -- well, at least since the advent of Nielsen people meters for the show in 1987. There's good and bad news for both CBS and NBC. It's clear right now that Dave's Late Show is topping Conan's Tonight Show in audience size. This is the first time Dave has done this to The Tonight Show in a full week of original broadcasts since 2005, and that has to worry NBC Universal Jeff Zucker, whose decision it was to rotate out Leno and rotate in Conan. Especially since this was probably the last week that the late night addicts were sampling O'Brien before settling in to their viewing routine. On the other hand, Conan is delivering better demographics -- about 11 years younger in the advertiser-coveted 18-to-49 category. But CBS noted that Dave was beginning to "narrow the gap" -- as was Craig Ferguson over Jimmy Fallon, who's also winning those coveted demos. Here are the network statements:
From CBS:
STUDIO CITY, Calif - June 25, 2009 - CBS's LATE SHOW with DAVID LETTERMAN beat "The Tonight Show" in viewers for the first time in a full week of original broadcasts since December 2005, according to Nielsen live plus same day ratings for the week ending June 19, the third week since Conan O'Brien took over as host of "The Tonight Show."
LATE SHOW with DAVID LETTERMAN delivered a 2.5/06 in households with an average of 3.46m viewers, up +14% in households (from 2.2/06) and +13% in viewers (from 3.05m) compared to the same week last year.
LATE SHOW beat "The Tonight Show" in households (2.5/06 vs. 2.3/06, +9%) and viewers (3.46m vs. 3.32m, +4%). LATE SHOW beat "The Tonight Show" in viewers against an all-first run week of "Tonight Show" broadcasts for the first time since the week ending December 2, 2005 (the week Oprah Winfrey appeared on LATE SHOW).
LATE SHOW has also narrowed the gap with "The Tonight Show" in adults 18-49, trailing by just -0.5 this week, compared to -0.6 last week and by -1.4 rating points in Conan O'Brien's premiere week.
THE LATE LATE SHOW with CRAIG FERGUSON posted a 1.2/04 in households with 1.55m viewers, up +9% in households (from 1.1/04) and +7% in viewers (from 1.44m) compared to the same week last year.
LATE LATE SHOW tied "Late Night with Jimmy Fallon" in households (1.2/04, each). LATE LATE SHOW beat "Late Night" on two nights in viewers: Monday (1.63m vs. 1.61m) and Thursday (1.66m vs. 1.43m). LATE LATE SHOW was in its closest competitive position with "Late Night" since the week ending May 8, 2009 in both households and viewers and since the week ending May 22, 2009 in both adults 18-49 and adults 18-34.
---
From NBC:
UNIVERSAL CITY, Calif. – June 25, 2009 – "The Tonight Show with Conan O'Brien" has dominated key late-night ratings for the week of June 15-19, out-delivering CBS's "Late Show with David Letterman" in every important demographic– adults, men and women 18-34, 18-49 and 25-54 – on every night of the week.
Despite the ratings boost that came with Letterman's apology to Gov. Sarah Palin on the Monday, June 15 "Late Show," Conan's "Tonight" dominated the week in every key demographic, stretching his leads versus the same week last year and compared with the "Tonight" season-to-date average. Conan won the week by a 67 percent margin in adult 18-49 viewers (1.8 million adults 18-49 vs. 1.1 million for "Late Show"), up from a 53 percent win during the same week last year and up from a 34 percent "Tonight" margin for the season through the end of May.
In the younger half of the key 18-49 demographic, adults 18-34, Conan won the week by a towering 164 percent margin (930,000 adults 18-34 vs. "Late Show's" 352,000), up from 103 percent for the same week last year and up from 50 percent for "Tonight" this season through the end of May.
Conan also defeated all other broadcast and cable competition in the time period last week, delivering double- or triple-digit leads over the top cable networks in the time period among key demos: by 63 percent in adult 18-49 rating (1.3 vs. 0.8 for Adult Swim), 27 percent in adult 18-34 rating (1.4 vs. 1.1 for Adult Swim) and 114 percent in adult 25-54 rating (1.5 vs. 0.7 for USA). Conan's 1.3 rating in adults 18-49 also decisively outscored Comedy Central's "The Daily Show" (0.8) and "Colbert Report" (0.6).
NBC's late-night demographic surge extends to 12:35 a.m. ET, where "Late Night with Jimmy Fallon" out-delivered CBS's "Late Late Show with Craig Ferguson" in 18-49 viewers by a 60 percent margin last week (930,000 adults 18-49 vs. 581,000 for "Late Late Show"), up from a 49 percent margin for the same week last year and up from Jimmy's 46 percent margin through the end of May.
The median age of Conan's audience last week was 45.8, more than 11 years younger than Letterman's 57.0. Conan is also younger than he was a year ago on "Late Night," where the median age of his audience for this same week one year ago was 48.5.
At 12:35 a.m. ET, the median age of Jimmy Fallon's audience was 44.0, more than nine years younger than the 53.5 for "Late Late Show." ABC's "Nightline" (57.9) and "Jimmy Kimmel Live" (53.1) are also significantly older than "Tonight" and "Late Night."
Conan has won 15 of 15 nights to date over "Late Show" in adults 18-49 and virtually every other important demographic. Conan has also maintained his demographic dominance through every night to date of the current week of June 22, according to Nielsen's Local People Meters in 21 metered markets.
At 1:35 a.m. ET, "Last Call with Carson Daly" tied the adult 18-49 ratings of "Late Late Show" and "Kimmel." In adults 18-34, "Last Call" (0.4 rating) beat both "Late Late" and "Kimmel" (0.3 each).
For the week of June 15-19, Conan's average 1,763 million adults 18-49 topped the 1.058 million of Letterman; in total viewers, Conan's audience of 3.320 million persons trailed Letterman's 3.463 million; and in adults 18-34, Conan's 930,000 million out-scored Letterman's 352,000. At 12:35 a.m. ET, Jimmy Fallon's 930,000 million adults 18-49 for the week out-delivered Ferguson's 581,000; in total viewers, Jimmy's 1.601 million beat Ferguson's 1.547 million; and in adults 18-34, Jimmy's 467,000 topped Ferguson's 232,000.



If Letterman wants to maintain it, they need to stop this nonsense of double taping shows, and taping the week before.
The monologue in particular relies upon discussing the day’s events. These late night talk shows gain much of their appeal and value from currency.
Shows that are taped in advance are bland, and have an exhausted feel probably because they were taped back to back. For example, Friday shows on The View are throwaways – no point to watching them. They’re taped on a previous day, not topical, and usually have a bunch of generic filler.
Also, Letterman takes a lot of vacation so that could also potentially pose a problem. He needs to convey that he’s fully present and enjoying being there, not just phoning it in for the huge paycheck.
Note to Jeff Zucker- before you fire yourself, please
return Jay Leno to The Tonight Show at 11:30pm. And
please send Conan packing. Honestly, who cares if Conan goes to ABC where he can replace Jimmy
Kimmel. NO ONE CARES ABOUT CONAN and CONAN’s humor
is humorless. Andy Richter should be added into the cast of CHUCK. Just merge Andy into a primetime show already on the air and release Conan and save the audience from the misery.
Dave = old
Conan = young
Suck it CBS
One by one, Hollywood institutions are being devalued or killed off entirely.
Tonight Show – check
William Morris Agency – check
Academy Awards – check
What’s next……
Dave has and will always be funnier than Conan. Funny will always be relevant no matter how old the host is. Dave’s guests are better, his bits are smarter and… oh why go on, Conan has no merits at all. Dumb kids think he’s funny, then have to face life’s other responsibilities and will lose interest. Just like everyone else who couldn’t bear his humor for even one week of shows.
All the people who were pissed about Jay leaving will eventually settle with Conan. Letterman is strictly old people at this point. I feel like I am 90 years old just watching his show. If NBC gives Conan enough time to build his audience, he will be fine. And maybe Fallon sucking over at NBC will finally give Ferguson the recognition he deserves. He delivers the laughs on what appears to be a zero budget.
I currently work at Kimmel and trust me, the execs are in full panic mode over here. Employee morale is in the tank and ABC knows it, which frightens the crap out of all of us working stiffs. This is a very difficult time in the late night world because it seems nobody really cares about the smaller shows anymore. But I do!
This whole Tonight Show debacle is akin to replacing Seinfeld at the height of his popularity with a sitcom starring Jamie Farr.
Rooting against Zucker and Co. is a lot of fun. Not that I am rooting for Dave – he’s gotten really grumpy instead of funny.
The only good to come out of this is that there are more people watching Craig Ferguson. That man is by far the funniest late night host by a mile.
Didn’t one of your previous posts mention that Leno was also low in ratings when he premiered as host of The Tonight Show? Viewers are fickle and will settle into “their viewing routine” when they’re good and ready — could be months or even years. Personally, I remember Carson as a kid, and his class and humor and banter with guests was unbeatable. Geez, I even enjoyed Arsenio. But Letterman — there seems to be self-loathing behind his every word/action, as if he desperately wants someone to put him out of his misery by putting him out to pasture and off CBS. Can’t even turn on that show, it just wreaks — and it’s NOTHING like the sometimes hilarious antics of his 80s stuff.
Conan should start making fun of Sarah Palin again. That trick always works.
I love Dave, but in the business of tv, the clear win goes to Conan. And thae fact that he has improved on Leno’s demo shows, at this point at least, NBC’s decision is a good one. Demos are all that matter. Winning the viewership numbers gives CBS something to spin, but NBC will rake in the dough.
And at least Leno is off my screen.
Dave = funny
Conan = not
Suck it NBC
They should just move the Tonight show to a later time, say 1.5 hrs later and move Jay Leno’s show from 10:00 to 11:30. Problem solved.
nightline won last night
Who didn’t see this coming? I love Conan and I don’t watch him host the Tonight Show. I watch Dave now. Conan’s format is late, late night. Jay Leno was perfect in the slot. Inoffensive, just barely more then average funny, and almost everyone loved him, including his guests. He’s a known quantity.
The Friday Letterman show is taped either on Wed. or Thurs.
The Friday View is taped Wed.
But for true bizarreness, both Dave, Craig & Conan are repeats all next week!
WTF?
Not even having done a month of shows & Conan is into reruns?
So NBC had or has no confidence in Conan & are going to fix the show over the next week!
Zucker, I think you’re finally going to get fired soon!
Don’t care about either. I keep working until 12:35 and then watch Ferguson…
Who ever told Conan O’Brien he was funny?
The comment about timeliness is only applicable to the Friday show. Dave only tapes one show a week in advance–the Friday show is taped on Monday. The remainder of the shows are taped the same day.
@anon
So Conan’s winning the demos, and Letterman’s barely beating him in cumes, and that means Zucker should be fired? What did people expect to happen? That a new host would beat the established host in two weeks? How long did it take Leno to build his audience? Dave’s been at 11:30 for 16 years, and he’s barely winning; that’s nothing to crow about. “Guy”s comment is as prescient as it is succinct; in the long-term, Conan wins.
Conan just started in the earlier time slot. It will take time for people to warm up to him and his audience to grow. But he’ll get there. I remember when Leno replaced Carson and never thought he’d fill the shoes, but he did.
Re Letterman, I tend to watch him more. I used to live on West 53rd, enjoyed having the show on my street and liked his sense of humor and interview style. However, I saw his show live several months ago and not sure he still enjoys it.
I’ve got to agree with a previous comment, the demographics matter far more than cumulative audience. If you’re advertising the AARP, pharmaceuticals, or cruises, then Letterman’s 57-year-old average is great. But if you’re advertising anything else, including cars and alcohol, then a 46-year-old average audience is essentially golden. Advertisers want a young audience with expendable cash. End of story. Conan wins.
Is Conan a better host than Letterman? Not by most objective opinions, including mine.
You have to remember, this is a business. There are many dozen films which are “better” than Transformers or Spiderman, but pleasing critics or creating art rarely has a significant commercial value.
If you’re a studio exec or shareholder, you just want a return on investment. Conan may not be the funniest, best, or most entertaining host in late night, but he is a bankable asset. It’s just that simple.
Demos are NOT the only things that matter. In fact, they matter a lot less because of demography. I.E. there are far fewer young people than there used to be twenty years ago. America is getting (White/Black at least), older, and there’s no getting around it. The Hispanic part of America is younger, but they watch Spanish Language TV.
A lot of people are living in the past, of twenty or even thirty years ago. America is like Europe, getting older, fewer young people, declining White (and also Black) populations. Immigrants are expanding, but they don’t acculturate to the native cultures. Shrug.
Winning means dealing with the reality of today, not 1984 or 1976. Youth culture is dead — not enough youth.
Oh, and lest anyone think I’m a Zucker apologist, I’d just like to say that Jimmy Fallon’s show is nearly unwatchable. He looks incredibly uncomfortable, lacks any semblance of interviewing acumen, cannot deliver improvised comedy, cannot write prepared comedy, and his set looks like some kind of hipster nightmare (what purpose does that Macbook serve?). Choosing Falon to replace Conan is proving to be one of the worst decisions in late-night history, and unless NBC can entice Stewart or Colbert to come aboard and save it, Ferguson will rule the 12:30 spot for as long as he wants it.
Ahh yes, the sheer idiocy of the 18-49 demographic. How the advertising world still puts any weight in so meaningless a measure defies logic.
Another reason why tv is f’d…
Orangeman – start looking for work. Kimmel is gonzo as soon as ABC can come up with any plausible excuse to not give that hour back to the affiliates. IE, sports show, music hour, Oprah rerun, a guy farting into a fan. ANYTHING but dead weight Kimmel.
That show is the very essence of late night overkill. Utterly pointless.
I’m shocked at the C-list celebrities that have been Conan’s headlining guests.
Look, I love Will Arnett & Larry David. Two of the decades greatest talents. But to quote Gob Bluth, “C’Mon!” Those were Conan’s two biggest headlining guests this week. Seriously.
Nikki, could you find out the truth behind this rumor (spreading rapidly): that if Conan’s ratings continue to drop, Leno will be back on the Tonight Show. It solves two problems: Conan’s disaster at 11:30 and the frosty reception from advertisers to Leno’s 10 PM show. Rick Ludwin (NBC late night chief) acknowledged in print that Conan was “nervous” on the air, which I found amazingly candid. They must be in a panic over there, seeing one of their sturdiest profit centers go down the toilet.
“Ahh yes, the sheer idiocy of the 18-49 demographic. How the advertising world still puts any weight in so meaningless a measure defies logic.
Another reason why tv is f’d…”
This will be going in my new book entitled, “Things Grumpy Old People Say”.
Does anyone else find it funny that Conan is battling in his demographic against Adult Swim? Adult Swim who’s main show, “Aqua Teen Hunger Force” centers around a talking ball of meat and a fat, blad guy from Jersey.
TOLDAYAAAAAAAAAA, Jay will come back in his new show and save the tonight show or the ratings will go down farther as everyone will sleep after JAY.
Zucky Baby you make a Boo Boo !!!
“B. Real” – true about the obsolete 18-49 rationale. Advertisers would rather cling to a fallacy than face that there are no magic bullets.
Also, Conan really sucks. He’s not even likable. He was likable a long time ago. Men get kind of creepy as they get old. That whole show just has a really negative, hostile flat vibe. Jimmy Fallon is likable and that will carry him while they find their wings, as long as he isn’t ordered to become like Leno or Conan. Then, it’s over.
I always used to watch Letterman, and then flip over to Conan. I liked them both and still do. I’d also like to believe that in the age of TIVO, HULU, itunes, (and whatever other new distribution) there is room for both of them to do good shows and make money. It shouldn’t have to be zero sum: its not 1992 anymore.
Project: LENO. Clearly CBS has seen the same affiliate research that NBC has…and they’re nervous. Keeping beating your chest Les….especially when your debt comes do next year!
Is anyone surprised??? Conan’s mean spirited humor and black listing of certain celebs he doesnt like will do him in.
Here is a guy who has made his career viciously attacking celebrities who actually have fan bases (Ie. Celine Dion) and than trots out some indie band no one has heard of as his musical guest every night.
It was a terrible idea to have him host The Tonight Show. Is he going to have the “big stars” on when it comes time to promote their movies? Or is he just going to trot out his friends like Paul Rudd, Will Ferrell and WIll Arnett every week and some washed up band or indie rock band no ones heard of? Thats all he did at Late Night and so far thats all he’s doing at the Tonight Show.
Conan is off to a faster start than Jay on Tonight, if you take into consideration the smaller late night audience today, and the fact Conan does better with the coveted demographic. I do feel he’s making a mistake trying to dumb down his humor to get the Leno audience. The old, low disposable income Leno audience is not necessarily attracted to low brow humor, but rather, what they perceive as a “nice guy” host. (Which speaks volumes to the gullability of the American public. Apparently they didn’t follow the strike.)
For NBC to jettison Conan would take 2 years of lower ratings than what he’s got presently. And to lose that young demo he’s winning. Ain’t gonna happen. Although Conan’s weak guest line up is curious. Are the booking wars back, with regular Leno guests told to avoid appearing on Conan?
Off topic – Transformers SUCKS big time. I’m not an action fan, but enjoyed the first. The new one blows. Shia is ok, Megan Fox can’t act, the story it beyond stupid.
Johnny Marshall -
You may be right, but I’m not even halfway through the demographic. It’s common sense and has been backed up by years of studies: Of the avalanche of supporting statistics, two stand out:
1) the amount of purchasing power by the over-49 age group is enormous. Consider that baby-boomers, 10 years older than the demographic are said to have anywhere from 50-70+% of purchasing power.
2) They’re no more loyal to products than the youth of America.
Why doesn’t it change? In short, because there’s a system in place, a “vicious cycle” as they say, where everyone currently getting paid.
Yet 5 years ago, Zucker famously said they wouldn’t program to the above-49 target group. Small wonder he’s the face of industry failure.
Nothing like watching as a bunch of people say in a month that Conan’s a disaster and that they hope he fails. You people are just kind of ignorant. Who wishes for people to lose their job. The entertainment industry makes me sick
I hate to be so cynical, but guys have been coming out and telling jokes in front of a curtain at 11:30 for 50 years. Is it possible that people are just getting tired of the same type of programming at the same time of night every single night for half a century?
Can you imagine the money that could be made if true demographics stopped being marginalized? 1. Women 2. 49+
The purchasing power of these two groups is enormous. Women make 80% of economic purchasing decisions. The 49+ crowd has far more disposable income than the 18-year-olds (especially these days where credit card debt can no longer be indiscriminately rung up.) Also, nobody clings to the same brand of detergent their entire life anymore.
The Whole Late Night scene is another example of the Networks laughing all the way to the Bank. The LOON’s at NBC are not bright enough to turn on one of their own light bulbs. Leno should have stayed at the Tonight Show, at least Jay & Dave are worth staying up for. More Leno Please!
Conan is a freaking genius…..He brings it EVERY SINGLE NIGHT, YEAR AFTER YEAR, in a way that ‘DAVE’ never could…..I have NEVER watched asshole Dave, and wouldn’t miss a single night of Conan, if I had the choice.