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Very early Thursday numbers for Tropic Thunder's domestic box office are running around $4.5 million after its Wednesday opening take of $6.5 million in 3,319 theaters. And tonight DreamWorks/Paramount is starting to revise downward the weekend and 5-day forecasts for the R-rated movie-within-a-movie comedy from Ben Stiller. Currently, the studio is expecting Pineapple Express-like North American gross of low to mid $20sM for the Friday-Saturday-Sunday weekend (down from low $30sM) and mid $30sM for the 5 days (down from $40M). Just one problem: Sony claimed Pineapple Express' negative cost was $27M, while I'm told Tropic Thunder's budget ballooned to $110+M. Yikes! Opening Friday, the LucasFilm/Warner Bros' Star Wars: The Clone Wars toon has box office predictions ranging from $15M to low $20sM in 3,300+ venues. The higher numbers depend on how many 8 to 11 aged boys show up to see it. For full analysis, see my previous: 'Tropic Thunder's Low-Key $6.5M Opening; 'Clone Wars' & 'Mirror' Wkd Predictions
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You think Tropic Thunder’s underperformance on Wed/Thurs might have anything to do with the fact that every poster – including the one on this thread! – says 8/15/08 as the release date? I went to the movies on Wednesday and was surprised to see TT playing.
Tropic Thunder was brilliant, but truthfully Stiller was shown up by the two Apatow movies (Express & Sarah Marshall) as far as the year’s best mainstream comedies go.
Having said that, Thunder really is a triumph for Stiller as a director. He really did a lot more than anyone would expect from a comedic actor in the director’s chair.
I guess this goes to show Paramount can’t do it by themselves w/o the aid of others.
Lets see shall we
Ironman
- Owned by Marvel and distributed by Paramount
- Paramount will only be paid for the distribution fees, somewhere btw 20M and 30M
Indiana Jones & Crystal Skull
- Spielberg, Ford Marshall & Lucas will get the lion share of the profits
- Paramount will most probably get btw 30M & 50M for distribution
Kungfu Panda
- Dreamworks finance the movie, thus the bulk of the profits will return to them
- Paramount will get some for the distribution
Paramount 100%
Cloverfield
The Spiderwick Chronicles
The Love Guru
Drillbit Taylor
The Ruins (P/Dreamworks)
Stop/Loss
Summary, the combined 5 Paramount releases for 2008 earned less than than 30% of the 3 big blockbusters of the year, so far.
Further proof, Paramount sole release last year that was 100% financed by the studio is Beowulf, with the rest being Dreamworks production.
Man oh man! Someone is in trouble, big-big trouble.
You’ve got to be nuts spending $110m on an R-rated comedy, I guess somebody didn’t want to risk upsetting Ben Stiller.
Everything I’ve been reading about “Tropic Thunder” made it seem groundbreaking and hilarious, but all the trailers made it seem like another bloated high-concept big-budget comedy, most of which, with the possible exceptions of Ghostbusters [I] and Men in Black [I], don’t work.
I still want to see it, but the marketing never matched the hype I’ve been reading about since the spring.
Maybe I’m not alone in that assessement.
Could this be the death knell of the $100 million comedy?
Nahhhh, as long as there are bloated egos, there will be bloated budgets.
Personally, I’d sooner prefer an end to America’s acceptance of mediocre, insipid Judd Apatow-connected drivel (dick jokes galore, but ultimately, sanctimonious pieces of dreck that critics can point to as justification that they’re not humorless prudes).
Mid-30s sounds optimistic, to me. I know everybody keeps saying the buzz is tremendous, but my teens still don’t know the title when I mention it. And when I explain it, they express no interest in seeing it — in the theatres. Maybe on DVD.
budget got up to $160 per anyone you check with…..
Do people even know Tropic Thunder has been playing since Wednesday? I didn’t know myself till the last minute, and I’m a regular fixture on Hollywood sites. I’ll bet it does fine numbers starting today and the rest of the weekend. Not as great as the studio hoped, but okay enough. Most of the people who’ve seen the movie have said they liked it so it might have somewhat good legs.
As a long time SW fan — pains me to say this but Clone Wars will not be doing any significant business this weekend. If it looks likes crap, sounds like crap…then its crap. I will be shocked beyond belief if this turd makes over 10 million.
I have to say Im surprised. I really felt this would be the big attration for the month of August. Something its its marketing campaign obviously didn’t register with the masses! Sort of sad when America embraces a stoner comedy over something a lot more original and egdy. Goes to show- Nothing is a sure thing!
Tropic Thunder’s going down!! It could do as little as $18 million this weekend. ($6m Friday, $7m Saturday, $5m Sunday). As I said before, the marketing for this film was awful. If it’s funny, you can’t tell from the ads. And why was this film allowed to cost $160 million! What were they doing? Having a good time, no doubt.
Ben Stiller has a bad track record as a director. Can you say Zoolander and The Cable Guy? Yeah, Night at the Museum was huge, but this isn’t a kind-friendly, Disney-type of film, and Stiller’s taste in comedy is downright weird. Armand’s comments were right on. Paramount’s distribution is having a banner $1 billion+ year, while the studio may actually lose money because of this turkey.
Isn’t the new Star Wars “movie” just a couple episodes of a Cartoon Network series mashed together?
I mean I know _Long Way Down_ was basically just an annotated version of the Fox Reality Channel series, but I went anyway as I don’t get FRC, and I enjoyed the previous MacGregor/Boorman trek series quite a bit.
But the Star Wars series is on basic cable? Why pay $10 to see it?
It’s really not. It’s actually cliched and by-the-numbers, with TERRIBLE editing.
This couple had opposite reactions, so maybe it’s just me: http://tinyurl.com/tropic-thunder-review
So this turgid faux-yukfest cost $160 MILLION dollars? Even if it was “officially” $110 million, it’s still a fucking scandal. Pardon my naive comments, but imagine if just ONE-TENTH of that budget were just given to the Groundlings? “Here ya go, kids, if you can’t make an incisive, gut-busting funny movie with this, go sell shoes”. Oh, and the other $90+ million could be used for a lot more cool movies as well. Jesus Christ Stiller, didn’t you use to make fun of shit like this? What happened?
Right, well this sorts out THAT movie.
Star Wars: The Clone Wars — The ONLY Review You Need
http://mikecane2008.wordpress.com/2008/08/15/star-wars-the-clone-wars-the-only-review-you-need/
Could Tom Cruise be the jinx in Tropic Thunder?
And to Armand, Beowulf was not 100% finance by Paramount, I think 50% was put up by Steve Bing’s Shangrila Production
So Goeorge Lucas was wrong when he said he doesnt need the services of A-list stars like Angelina Jolie to do voice for his movie, look what happened to his Starwars Clonewars, it performed way way below than Katzenberg’s Kung Fu Panda.
Saw Tropic Thunder and Pineapple Express this week.
First off – not a pot guy at all, 40 something ex-punker, so I’m not bible belt either — Pineapple Express sucked. Just STUPID. I guess you have to be stoned to think it’s funny. Just talked down to the entire movie.
Tropic Thunder on the other hand – fantastically funny. Robert Downey Jr just MAKES that film. A couple of flaws in my mind (’pick up the REAL guns’) and a really heavy-handed Tom Cruise role (Matthew McConneheay[sic]) was a better ’start walk-on’ in my opinion) but all in all pretty freaking funny.
You really think celebrity voices was the reason Kung Fu Panda was huge and Clones won’t do much?
How ’bout one is actually a really good movie and the other a turd with no appeal beyond hardcore fanboys (who will likely hate it) and little kids?
If KFP had no celebrity voices and Clones was packed with them, KFP would probably still triple or quadruple Clones’s box office.