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Reliable sources are telling me that the Wednesday opening for Ben Stiller's Tropic Thunder from DreamWorks/Paramount was just around $6.5 million from 3,319 North American theaters. 
(But another R-rated comedy, Sony's Pineapple Express, did $12.1M a week ago.) So what are its weekend prospects? Well, the studio fully anticipated the soft Wednesday opening and still believes Tropic Thunder can make $40 million in its first 5 days. "We will play to a little older audience than Pineapple Express, so we should do better on Saturday and get to about the same box office," one insider tells me. But one problem is that, unlike Judd Apatow movies, Tropic Thunder has underweighted wanna-see among the gals: there's only moderate interest among women under 25, and zilch interest among women under 25. Another worry is that this was a very expensive laugher, witha negative cost of $100+M. To get to $40M domestic gross, the studio is hoping that the old maxim holds true: that any publicity is good publicity. And this pic starring Stiller, Jack Black and Robert Downey Jr has been hyped to the max. On the down side, some vocal African-American actors (because of Downey in blackface) and mental disability advocates (because of the un-PC use of the term "retard") are pissed at the spoof. On the up side, critics are loving Ben Stiller's direction and script and story (with Justin Theroux) and Tom Cruise's cameo. But all along Hollywood has wondered whether Tropic Thunder could break the curse that movies about movies don't do well at the box office, especially if they're stuffed like this one with the kind of insider jokes that would even go over the heads of The Grill's lunchtime regulars.
Here is what my box office gurus are predicting: low $30sM for Friday-Saturday-Sunday and low $40sM for the 5 days. As one of my experts analyzes, "Unfortunately, a few of the tracking services say that Tropic won’t be as high as Pineapple. They are saying about $35M for the 5 days. My gut is higher. I bet $42M for the 5 days. The reviews could not be better, the heat is huge, people love comedy. I think it will surprise."
As for this coming weekend's Friday opening movies, my box office gurus are all over the map on LucasFilm/Warner Bros' Star Wars: The Clone Wars toon for the geek in all of you (not me) with dominant tracking interest from males over 25, with predictions from a low of $15M to a high of low $20sM from 3,300+ venues. The higher numbers depend on how many 8 to 11 aged boys show up to see it. Mirrors, the Regency/Fox horror film from the director of The Hills Have Eyes and starring Kiefer Sutherland, will probably open in the low teens with around $13M with balanced interest across 3 of the 4 quadrants. Male over 25 interest is the weakest but appears siphoned by Clone Wars and Tropic Thunder. And Woody Allen's sexy Vicky Cristina Barcelona from The Weinstein Co/MGM starring Scarlett Johansson, Penelope Cruz and Javier Bardem, should collect about $3 million from its 692 runs. Also opening is Summit Entertainment’s animated feature Fly Me To The Moon which is going out in 3D on every screen (428 real D, 16 IMAX and 8 in Canada). The weekend estimate is $1M to $2M, limited by not by demand because consumers want to see 3D films (ergo the success of Journey To The Center Of The Earth) but by supply within the exhibition community. Summit acquired the rights to the film with no minimum guarantee. And Warner Bros' mega-blockbuster The Dark Knight? This 5th weekend in theaters will see it drop from No. 1 to #2 or possibly even #3...
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Not surprised by the ‘low-key’ opening night number. I dont think this movie will do as well as everyone thinks considering the subject matter and R rating. Dont get me wrong, I want to see it, but it has very limited appeal.
And why are people mad about the use of the word retarded in the trailer!?! Did they not see “The Ringer” a few years back?
Tropic Thunder also has a HUGE opponent to face this week: The Olympics. Tropic Thunder = $10.50, Olympics = $10.
Plus the teenagers and 20-somethings are less likely to spend money now that summer’s coming to an end and there’s been enough comedies to empty the wallet.
I cant believe you went out of your way to spoil that cameo. Shame on you. That was really low class.
Just saw it this evening. Let me state I am a minority and a woman. If anyone was going to be offended by this film it certainly would be me.
But I’ve got to tell you folks get off the damn picket lines and go see the movie. I sat next to an African American guy and he laughed his ass off like the rest of the audience at that showing.
It is crude, it has farts, it is gory, it has some cringe-inducing parts, it makes fun of the mentally challenged, over 40 actors, African Americans, Hollywood media moguls, Aussie method actors who never get out of character, action film makers, people adopting children from overseas, druggies, ass-kissing agents and assistants and just about anybody who might take offense to anything.
Amazingly, I didn’t see one Bush joke! Course, I could have missed it in all the laughter that covered up the next line. I laughed so hard and so long at so much of this film that I almost threw up.
It’s gross, it’s offensive, it is vulgar, it’s funny as shit. Hell, any film that has Jack Black tied to a tree is worth going to see in my book.
Tom Cruise was the surprise of the film for me! He pulled off some truly funny stuff.
It may be starting slow but the word of mouth on this is going to be huge. Take my word for it.
**Spoiler** Robert Downey Jr starts talking to the true African American actor in the film within a film about how they’ve been held back for hundreds of years… Then starts saying how it’s changing. He ends up quoting the words to the opening theme of “The Jeffersons.” That’s one of the times I almost lost the hot dog I wolfed down at the start of the film.
Go see this movie. Take off your hat of indignation; expect the worst when it comes to being offensive and prepare to spend 110 minutes guiltily laughing your ass off!
Well, believe it or not Paramount expected this. They already said in an interview on Variety that they weren’t expecting huge opening numbers like PE because TT has wider appeal and so they believe it will do alot better over the weekend. I still expected a little more though.
Kudos for using The Ringer as the ultimate backhanded compliment. Here’s one thing you can’t overlook though — the throngs of parents who see their disabled children get picked on at school by the use of the word — retard. That’s a vocal and protective group. Hopefully the use of it in the movie is with some awareness. If it’s not, then it’s a waste.
I agree. This won’t do as well as they’d like. Making fun of spoiled actors who play at war? Please. It’s kinda like making fun of rappers. It’s redundant. Also, pushing the “this is Tom Cruise’s comeback” meme won’t work either. NO ONE LIKES HIM. I will not pay my very hard earned money to see him. (Don’t believe me? See Nikke’s previous UA stories from today. Tom’s falling star sank his own studio)
What’s funny is that the movie is mocking actors/performers/studios who purposefully exploit minority groups in order to try and win awards. However irreverently, the movie is “on their side” (of the minority groups).
As someone who saw this film and has known mentally challenged people, I am DEEPLY offended by the activists groups that claim any of the content in Tropic Thunder poses some sort of affront to a specific group of people.
The movie is hilarious, but it ain’t provocative. It doesn’t even come CLOSE to vilifying or ridiculing or poking fun at retarded or black people.
So, my dear activists, in the words of Les Grossman, “____ ____!!!”
They’re trying to do something bold and original in the comedy genre. Un-PC is admitted with animated characters on tv but its seems that it has a long way to go before being accepted in live-action.
I guess the DVD will become cult. Forgive me, I’m French, some of Adam Sandler movies even go direct-to-video here.
What is with these non Holiday Wednesday openings??? Pine Apple Express would have opened-up number one at the box office…if it had opened on a Friday, and now, Tropic Thunder may suffer the same fate. Certainly, a bad releasing strategy for both films, but I could have called this ahead of time. I am in utter shock due to these completely illogical choices??? This bad planning is, negligent at best, and executive level incompetence at worse!!!
Saw it last night. It’s a very very very funny movie.
I’ve got to argue with Nikki using the term “blackface”. Downey Jr.’s character had “a surgical procedure” to alter his appearance. The protestors are idgits. Why can’t people just see a parody for a parody?
The problem is, the people and organizations who are complaining and protesting and boycotting – they just don’t get it. Stiller’s character is an action star that attempts to get his Oscar by going to the old Oscar-bait standby and playing someone with a mental handicap… and he gets nailed for it. The world turns on him – and suddenly he finds his entire career at risk. The humor isn’t at the expense of the mental handicap, but at how bad and ignorant Ben Stiller’s character is at bringing it to life.
The movie is not ridiculing mentally disabled people, and it’s not mocking black people. It is portraying the main characters as ignorant and stupid for holding those views and taking such actions. It is exposing the idiocy of such prejudices and insensitivity.
I do have to give credit to Dreamworks and Paramount. They’re not touching one frame of the film. They stated that no changes or cuts would be made in response to these compaints. Bravo. Score one for the people that DO “get” it.
I actually really want to see it. I just figured it wasn’t out until the weekend.
That blackface nonsense has got to stop.
Didn’t Eddie Murphy and the Wayans Brothers use “white face” in their movies.
I didn’t hear an outcry from the white community about that.
When i saw the first promo for TT and saw Robert Downey jr in black face,i knew right there and then that Al Sharpie and Jessie Jackson where gonna have a field day with this.
It seems that after Paula Wagner,satire also left the building.
What African American organizations are protesting? Because I haven’t seen or heard about them protesting at all. I don’t think there is an uproar in the Black community about this film AT ALL. And as much as we can make fun of Al Sharpton for complaining, I haven’t seen him out there protesting.
I think Nikki is wrong about that part. The only people complaining are the advocates for the mentally disabled.
As far as this film is concerned, it looks funny, but I’m not going to run out and see it first weekend. I may not even see it at all and just wait for the DVD. With comedy, my tastes are a little bit different. So rather than waste 13 bucks on something that makes me chuckle, I’d rather stay home and watch my DVD’s of “30 Rock” or “Arrested Development”.
TT is not an event movie. And I don’t know why some sites are predicting a 53 million dollar 3 day weekend.
That’s shenanigans.
Yeah seriously, if Eddie Murphy can play in jewface, all you oversensitive clods can STFU. Can’t wait to see this movie when I’m not on-call (tried to see Wall-E while oncall, got in a lot of trouble :/)
Who have been the “vocal African-American” actors protesting Robert Downey, Jr.’s appearance?
I think the Olympics is going to keep some of TT’s audience at home this weekend. And I think the appeal of a new Star Wars film (even if it’s anime) is underrated. Also I think TT’s marketing has been weak. It may have buzz, but the ads are weak.
So going on nothing more than a gut feeling, I think Star Wars is going to do $28 million, Tropic Thunder $23 million, The Dark Knight $15 million, Pineapple Express $12 million, Mirrors $11 million. We’ll see.
FWIW, last night 10:30 show, Loews Lincoln Square in the big theater. About 3/4 full, huge laughs from the crowd many times, smattering of spontaneous applause at the end, packs of 20-somethings reciting lines in men’s room, street outside afterwards.
While most of the “retard” jokes are actually making fun of the actors rather than disabled people, the film does cross the line a few times and make jokes at the expense of the mentally handicapped. Still, not enough for a boycott but there are some insensitive moments.
As for Downey Jr., they were more careful with him (Stiller and RDJ both credit Brandon T. Jackson for telling them whenever jokes crossed the line) although there is still the problem of what people are laughing at. Often, I found people laughing at RDJ’s impression as if that was the joke. They’d cackle at him but then get silent whenever Jackson’s character called him out (which should have been the punchline). It’s the same problem that Dave Chappelle struggled with.
Still, it’s a very funny movie and while it might cross the line a couple times, I didn’t find it to be objectionable.
As for some people’s dark horse The Clone War, if a Star Wars film can’t even get a good review from Harry Knowles, I’m not sure how much it can expect at the box office.
Well I’ll just say it because no one else on here will.
Dark Knight in a surprise will be number 1 for a 5th straight weekend, barely squeaking by TT for about. $480M-ish cume by Sunday, and $500M by 8-24. $510-515M by Sept 1.
Then we’ll see if WB pushes it in some way.
In the same way that everyone on here is sick of Apatow, I am sick of Stiller. At least he’s not a schmuck trying to fall in love in this one, like in his previous 8 films or so. Ugh.
Dunno if TT is too Hollywood in-jokey to work coast to coast.
btw the Jeffersons bit was not a spoiler eb…it was in the longer previews
“the throngs of parents who see their disabled children get picked on at school by the use of the word — retard.”
Any child that is truly mentally disabled enough to fit the definition of “mentally retarded” is probably going to be in a special school anyway. Not to mention that this is an R rated movie – if parents are taking kids who aren’t already familiar with the term “retard” to movies like this, that’s the least of their worries. Really, you think kids haven’t figured out “retard” as an insult, and this movie is going to let the genie out of the bottle?
And I have to agree with those who have pointed out that there has been (surprisingly?) little outcry from the black community. Who are these “vocal” actors? Do they really exist?
And the Tom Cruise cameo isn’t that big a secret, anyone who is that sensitive about spoilers shouldn’t be reading industry insider blogs like this one.
Star Wars I can’t see making much at all. Animation is terrible, reviews are terrible, and it’s not even a real movie, it’s just the first couple episodes of a new cartoon show cobbled into a theatrical release. It would be like releasing that Ewok Movie in theatres, people just don’t consider it a real star wars movie.
It’s widely reported by now that Tom Cruise is in Tropic Thunder. And guess what? It was widely reported about Matthew McConaughey’s cameo after he replaced Owen Wilson after his suicide attempt. People with no class are fools like snaporaz.
why do no articles (including this one) or interviews with ben stiller bring up the fact that etan cohen wrote an extremely funny first draft that stiller and theroux then re-wrote? i read cohen’s draft and the shooting script wasn’t all that different from the orig. i’ve never even met cohen, just thought i’d put that out there as a fellow writer.
All good comments, but Nikki, can’t you filter out the obvious b.s. flack material, like Eb’s overemphatic, patently phoney rah-rah plug?
Paul,
Hate to disappoint you but I don’t work in Hollywood or for anyone or any entity associated with Hollywood. And amazingly, I don’t have any aspirations to do so.
I work at a schlub job like most of my friends and we enjoy going to movies because it helps to take us away from the day-to-day doldrums of our lives.
You should be grateful. I’m one of your dream fans – the kind who will tell you if what you’re putting out there is shit or if what you’re putting out there is funny or good.
My comments were sincere – I loved the movie! And I don’t usually go to these type of films. I don’t go to parody films.
I do however, like movies that will make me laugh. This one did that. It also surprised me. Unlike someone else here who noted that it was “widely reported” who was in the film, I hate to burst your bubble but most of us who don’t work in your industry don’t sit around reading the trades.
The only thing I knew about this movie was from the trailers. It looked funny so we went to see it.
You’re an ass to think EVERYONE who posts here works in your industry. And you’re an ass to think that EVERYONE who doesn’t work in it can’t express themselves with more than just simple two and three letter words.
I now understand why so much crap comes out of Hollywood. If people like you can’t tell a real post from a fake one – how the hell would you know what WE want to see?
***again, rolls eyes, shakes head, walks off***
I do not feel that the movie should be banned. But I am mad as can be at dreamworks.
The n-word was used once, and they consulted with African-Americans.
Not only is the word “retard” used SEVERAL times in the movie (and they did not consult with anyone), they also portray intellectually disabled people very poorly, they have a father saying reacting negatively to the fact that he has a developementally disabled son, etc. If Stillman had portayed the blacks as poorly as he portroyed those with disabilities, you can bet the black community would be reacting.
And way do you care if the disabled community protests? Cause we look at you? Try living on our side of the fence and see what it feels like to be disabled in America.
PS. Who says disabled kids go to special-ed schools. Haven’t you ever heard of inclusion?
“Dark Knight in a surprise will be number 1 for a 5th straight weekend, barely squeaking by TT for about. $480M-ish cume by Sunday, and $500M by 8-24. $510-515M by Sept 1.”
Did you even do the math on this? To make 480 by sunday, that’s 30 million over the next four days. That’s about what it made over those four days LAST week. Best case for this weekend for TDK is probably 18 million. Tropic Thunder is in big trouble if it can’t make that.
And Rickismom, I’m sorry about Ricki, but none of the things you describe reflect poorly on mentally disabled people, if one of the characters is bummed he has a mentally disabled kid, that reflects poorly on HIM. And I’m curious, if you are offended by that sort of thing, I assume you knew about this before going to see the movie – why did you still go see it? Or are you just making assumptions based on what you’ve heard?
Comment by Dr. Kenneth Noisewater
Bingo! Why can’t we just get along and laught at ourselves once a while.
DK will finally relinquish the throne this weekend, no doubt about it. But sad not for soon it will reaches 500M and lauging all way to the bank and the record books.
TT will be a hit for sure, sure am hoping for it. PE which was frontloaded due to Apatow’s name on it and fame for his crude jokes, that drove teenages and the younglings to see it on its opening day. TT wil be a slow burner. (also, it doesn’t have Murphy, Ferrel nor Carell..whew!!)
I reckon TT will play to older crowds which means, they will be taking their time to get to the theaters.
Prediction: 17M for Wed & Thurs. 21M for the weekend take.
Aa drop of 50% or close to it is waiting for PE.
No surprise considering Ben Stiller show proven himself to be incapable of directing a halfway decent film or one that makes more than a buck fifty. Stiller ought to stick to acting which he’s actually adequate at.
Try less than 25 mil for the whole weekend and huge drop next week.
1. No one outside Hollywood cares about a Hollywood send up.
2. The trailer was terrible even if BS insiders in the trailer industry gave it an award.
3. The movie is TERRIBLE! Seriously, it wasn’t funny, it wasn’t timely. (Will young people even get some of the Viet Nam movie parodies? – Black doing Tex Cobb in Uncommon Valor for cryin’ out loud!
4. the critics only said they liked it because they don’t want to seem unhip, just like with last week’s Pinapple Express which took a huge header once audiences realized that it was a terrible, uneven mess of a movie.
5. This is the third straight weekend with an overrated , uneven Hollywood comedy and I think people have had enough.
Just to have you know, that My son with Down syndrome goes to a regular school, and walk’s regular halls along with his tyical peers. Not all children go to special schools. As a matter of fact most do not. So this movie does affect our children, and even more, if you think it doesn’t, how do you think my child felt when we were at the store and some teens stated that he ” went full retard”. If that doesn’t affect society, and if that doesn’t draw the line, than what does.
Wow all the people complaining need to shut the hell up. My god. Its a fucking comedy. Cry more?
I dont care if your son is disabled, are they referring to him in the movie no. They are referring to actors playing mentally retarded characters. Stop digging for a problem that doesn’t exist.
You people are pathetic.
Hey, Eb — pretty good approximation of a “regular Joe” response: indignant tone, lame attempt at humorous ripostes, tortured syntax. The all-caps was a nice touch, too.
The funniest part was your continued assumption that I’m somehow part of the industry; why, just because I know the word, “flack?” Hate to break your bubble, industry-flunky, but I’m just a smart-ass from the Midwest (yup; we read the trades out here, too).
I’m a woman — over 25, it’s true.
Loved this movie. Thought it was one of the funniest movies I’ve ever seen.
If it doesn’t do well this week, it’ll be because of the Olympics. It’ll have terrific word of mouth.
Nikki P., you really think that kids would never have made fun of your kid until they got the idea from this movie? Come on.
Paul,
Ah, you cleared it up for me. Midwest smart-ass.
Based on your response to me I see you still have your head up your ass (because I still don’t work in Hollywood or for anyone in it or the industry); and that you still think your opinion and commentary is so “spot-on” that you can’t see the truth when it’s staring you in the face.
I also find it funny that you believe that when you tell someone to do something “Nikki can’t you filter out the comments I don’t like” that they will actually do it. Tells me how much of a self-absorbed ass you really are.
As to my indignation, I thought it was offensive that your post wasn’t about the topic but only made to rip into me. I gave a sincere comment, I must have told at least 30 people about the film and recommended they see it. Quite a few are going this weekend, some went the next night and came back with the same reaction I had – laughed their asses off.
Here’s a suggestion, why don’t you start your own blog and then you can control who posts or not because we all know – in your world – it’s all about Paul.
But thanks for the clarification (BTW – love that comment “industry-flunky.”) Hmm, maybe I should apply for a job with a PR firm. I can always use your post as one of my references. “See here – this yokel already thinks I work for you!!”
For the record, The Ringer was screened for the Special Olypmics people, who gave it their complete support. The movie does not use a “fake” Special Olympics type event, it uses the actual one, with real performers and the whole shebang. There was no fuss over that film (aside from potential South Park copyright infringement) because The Ringer had the blessing of the people who would rail against it.
Thanks for the final nail-in-the-coffin confirmation, Eb! You’ve earned your oats this week; hopefully, your industry boss will now give you a break from getting the coffee and picking up the dry cleaning (and remember, it’s supposed to be 140 degrees). Only a supremely self-absorbed, self-hating, navel-gazing flack, momentarily distracted from the endless, mind-numbing minutia of scouring the blogs, promoting today’s cinematic dreck, would think my one-line toss-off was personally “offensive!”
Bravo, you cretin!
The joke is not on the movie industry etc., it’s on us for spending our hard-earned money going to see this putrid movie.