Here’s a fun fact that summarizes RBC Capital Markets’ David Bank’s conclusion from his thorough examination this morning of the video ad marketplace — and the potential threat that digital poses to broadcast and pay TV: An entire week of YouTube is roughly as valuable to major advertisers as a single, first-run episode of The Big Bang Theory. “Is The Big Bang Theory a big show? Yes,” Bank says. “Does its scale threaten the fabric of the rest of the TV advertising ecosystem? We do not think so.” That’s one reason the analyst says the market isn’t a zero-sum game, and is big enough to support growth in digital and traditional video ad sales.
It’s an important issue for investors. Many are becoming wary about conventional TV’s prospects as the ranks of people who watch video on their smartphones, tablets, and PCs grow. Last year was the first in which people spent more time with digital devices including their phones than they did with TV, and the gap between the platforms will continue to grow. No wonder advertisers also are looking seriously at digital, which companies including Google, Yahoo, and AOL encouraged at their NewFront presentations. Sales to national and local Web video providers have grown an average of 20.6% a year since 2009 vs 4.9% a year for national and local TV.
Read More »
Long-form videos continue to grab the most online advertising. But creators who want to build big audiences also need short content, according to a report from Freewheel, an ad-monetization tech company. ”Long-form (content) leads the way,” said Brian Dutt, director, advisory services for Freewheel, who presented the company’s quarterly report on online video and advertising trends this morning at Digital Hollywood in LA. “Content monetization continues to grow, up 29% year-over-year.” Long-form video, defined as more than 20 minutes in length, attracted more than half of all the ad spend on online video. Views of online videos grew 27% in the first quarter compared with the same period last year, while views of online video ads grew 26%. That the two numbers are nearly identical is a good thing, Dutt said. “Are ad views keeping pace with video views? You want to see the (online video) audience growing, but you want to see advertising keeping up.” Read More »
EXCLUSIVE: Two highly respected advertising/marketing shops that helped launched some of the most successful and memorable campaigns — Blue Jasmine, Dallas Buyers Club, Lee Daniels‘ The Butler, Silver Linings Playbook, Ted, Wolverine, Avatar, Despicable Me, The King’s Speech, Forrest Gump, Slumdog Millionaire, and Black Swan, to only name a few — are merging. In Sync Advertising and Bemis Balkind have joined together under a new moniker that merges their names with In Sync’s Smitty as CEO and Peter Bemins and Aubry Balkind serving as co-presidents. It will be known as In Sync Bemis Balkind.
The troika will continue with audio/visual, print, digital and branding campaigns for film, broadcast, home entertainment and other mediums with offices both in New York and Los Angeles. In other words, a one-stop shop. The move combines In Sync’s A/V motion picture advertising expertise with Bemis Balkind’s print, digital and web ad talent. Read More »
Think big advertisers are so focused on TV’s Golden Age programming (and audiences) that they aren’t interested in the YouTube-based creators drawing hordes of younger viewers to watch their back-bedroom shows? Think again.
Earlier this week, research firm eMarketer estimated Google would take in about $5.6 billion in gross YouTube advertising revenues, up 51 percent from 2012, and would keep nearly $2 billion after paying YouTube partners and expenses. Those estimates are notably higher than other Wall Street firms’ (and Google doesn’t break out its YouTube revenues and expenses separately), but suggest regardless that lots of money is sloshing into the online video king.
And based on this week’s Los Angeles events sponsored by Ford and Nintendo, Madison Avenue and its big clients are definitely tuning into YouTube’s rising echelon of performers for marketing boosts in lots of different ways besides just buying an ad. Read More »
Deadline Financial Editor David Lieberman and host David Bloom talk about highlights from this week’s big UBS media investor conference, which was dominated by lots and lots of talk about the future of pay television, whether the conversation was about DirecTV dropping channels, Viacom and Sony possibly starting an online service, Aereo’s big talk about partnering with cable companies and challenging broadcasters in the Supreme Court, or rising ad revenues for CBS and other broadcasters in a year plumped up by revenues from the Winter Olympics, mid-term elections and an improving economy.
Deadline Big Media podcast 63 (.MP3 version)
Deadline Big Media podcast 63 (.M4A version) Read More »
The rosy prediction reflects growing strength in the economy, and in the performance of the broadcast TV networks, CBS Chief Research Officer David Poltrack told investors today at the UBS Global Media and Communications Conference. He says that the growth figure would remain strong, at +4%, if you factored out the expected ad sales boost from the Winter Olympics. Don’t be too quick to scoff that Poltrack’s forecast may be colored by a conflict of interest: He’s had a pretty good track record in recent years, which is why so many people in the industry track his annual UBS presentation. He was right about on target last year when he predicted that network ad revenues this year would drop 2%, reflecting a 3% underlying growth rate when you factor out the 2012 Olympics and election. Economists “are encouraged by recent trends in the housing market as well as gains in private sector employment,” he says. “They see a continuing, but somewhat plodding, recovery.” But Poltrack is enthusiastic about the broadcast business — suggesting that this season may mark a transition to a period where networks will benefit from increased on-demand viewing, and excitement from people who use Twitter and other social media to chat with fellow fans. Last year “I concluded my presentation by posing the question, ‘Are we entering a new golden era for broadcast network television?’” Poltrack says. “Today I am going to try and convince you that the time may have come to drop the question mark.” Read More »
TV networks should be encouraged by the ad forecasts presented this morning at the UBS Global Media and Communications Conference. Global spending on the medium will grow 7.7% in 2014, up from +1.8% this year, Magna Global EVP Vincent Letang says, In the U.S., broadcast TV will benefit most from the mid-term elections and Winter Olympics. Spending will increase 9.3%, in contrast to this year’s 5.7% drop. Cable will be +7.8% vs. +4.4% in 2013. Much of the growth will come from technology and telecom companies as they introduce game consoles and gadgets — but auto and pharmaceutical spending will rise. Entertainment, however, will be down in 2014, due in part to efforts by studios to trim their release slates. Political spending likely will be about a third higher than it was in 2010 at $3B, Letang says. He also expects about $600M in spending around the Winter Olympics. Generally speaking “television and digital media are sharing the eyeballs and dollars that print and radio are losing,” Letang says.
It’s time for ad companies to release their year-end forecasts, and ZenithOptimedia is out today with a bullish one – largely tied to big increases it expects for ads on smartphones and tablets. It projects global spending in 2014 to hit $532B – a 5.3% increase vs this year which is +3.6% from 2012. (The new projection is up slightly from the company’s forecast in September for spending to grow 5.1% in 2014.) The Winter Olympics and mid-term elections should propel spending in North America 4.6% from this year’s $166.9B, which is +3.3% vs 2012. But mobile is the big story. The medium “is now the main driver of global adspend growth,” it says. “This is the first time in the past 20 years that a new platform is expanding overall media consumption without cannibalizing any of the other media platforms.” By 2016 mobile should become the fourth largest ad medium, ahead of radio, outdoor and magazines, ZenithOptimedia says. This is the first time the company also has made some three-year projections. It says that global spending on mobile will hit $45.4B in 2016, up from $13.5B this year. In the U.S. ad sales for mobile display will increase 239.4% by 2016 to $6.4B. Smartphone penetration will grow to 77.3% from 54% in 2013, while 37.1% will own tablets, up from 23.8%. Over the same period, global ad sales on television will increase by $29.8B, but its market share will slip to 39.3% … Read More »
Ad expenditures, at $35.8B, were up for the sixth consecutive quarter with the strongest year-over-year growth rate since late 2010, Kantar Media reports this morning. But there were big differences between the two April-to-June periods. Last year “spending was deflated by major advertisers who conserved budgets in advance of the Summer Olympics and this makes current year growth appear larger,” says Kantar Media Chief Resaearch Officer Jon Swallen. In addition, the NCAA Final Four basketball playoffs moved from March to April, which “generated a sizable windfall of extra TV ad revenue. Without these factors, Q2 ad spend growth would have been lower by about one full percentage point.” With these idiosyncrasies, total TV ad sales rose 6.4% in Q2 with cable +14.9%, network TV +4.9%, spot TV -3.5% (it would have been flat if you took away last year’s political ads), Spanish language TV +6.1% and national syndication -1.2%. Spending across all media by the top 10 advertisers rose 15.7% to $4.1B but that includes extraordinary increases by companies including Procter & Gamble (+35.3%), AT&T (+33.2%) and General Motors (+28.0%) that kept their powder dry for the Olympics. The top spending media companies in Q2 — mostly buying ads for summer movies — were Comcast (-17.4% to $393.2M), News Corp (+8.2% to $322.5M) and Time Warner (+6.9% to $316.0M). Retailers were the top buyers overall at $3.8B, virtually flat vs last year, followed by auto companies ($3.6B, +6.9%), local … Read More »
UPDATE, 1:00 PM: Looks like it’s a done deal, with an announcement planned for Sunday in Paris, The Wall Street Journal says. The new entity will be called Publicis Omnicom Groupe. The partners’ current CEOs — Omnicom’s John Wren and Publicis’ Maurice Levy — will be co-CEOs. One of the first challenges: sorting through potential client conflicts including Coke and Pepsi.
PREVIOUS, 9:56 AM: Major TV network owners including CBS, Viacom, and Discovery will be watching this one closely: The two ad companies, which together account for about 40% of U.S. sales, are in “late-stage merger talks,” Bloomberg reports citing someone “with knowledge of the situation.” The deal would be structured as a merger of equals to create the world’s largest ad company with a market value of more than $30B. The plan has “significant industrial logic to it, and thus shouldn’t be ruled out as plausible,” says Pivotal Research Group analyst Brian Wieser. The combined company could raise its fees because it would face less competition, the thinking goes. Omnicom’s properties include BBDO Worldwide, TBWA Worldwide and DDB Worldwide Communications Group and its client base includes household names such as Apple, McDonalds, Johnson & Johnson, Volkswagen, and ExxonMobil. Paris-based Publicis has Publicis Worldwide, Leo Burnett Worldwide and DigitasLBi with clients including AllState, AT&T, Citigroup, CocaCola, Comcast, Fox, Kellogg’s, and Samsung. Antitrust officials in the U.S. and in Europe likely would take a dim … Read More »
These two worlds were bound to collide, right? Advertisements are everywhere, especially in Tokyo. And we’ve seen folks covered scalp to toe with tattoos, piercings and brandings. (Keep that last one in mind.) So now comes the inevitable next step: A PR guy in Japan’s capital has begun putting ads directly on the thighs of young women, who have to wear short skirts to flaunt their wares. One of the most popular ads touts this week’s local Blu-ray launch of Universal’s Seth MacFarlane raunchfest Ted, which seems somehow apropos. “It’s an absolutely perfect place to put an advertisement,” Hidenori Atsumi, the brains behind the bodily billboards, tells The Guardian. “This is what guys are eager to look at and girls are OK to expose.” And not just a few — more than 3,000 young women have signed up for the gig. (They have to be at least 18.) They get paid by walking around for eight hours a day sporting the strategic adverts. The boss recommends they be augmented by over-the-knee socks. Now that’s targeted advertising.
Related: How ‘Ted’ Made It To The Oscar Show
A combination of low ratings and a sluggish ad market accounted for the 9% drop in the average price of a 30-second primetime spot on broadcast network TV versus last year’s Q1. The typical price early this year fell to $102,983, according to an analysis by media agency TargetCast tcm of data supplied by research firm NetCosts. That’s a change from the last three years, when prices rose or were mostly flat. The researchers provided selected data about individual networks, but they illustrate the differences in pricing power. Fox led the pack with an average unit cost of $172,139, followed by CBS ($116,122), ABC ($106,577) and NBC ($62,890). The Peacock network was down 27% from last year, according to TargetCast. Cable also struggled with the soft scatter market early this year. Prices for the 15 top networks among 25- to-54-year-olds were “up very slightly” to $14,865, following a 2% decline in Q4. ESPN came in at $38,943 early this year, ahead of TNT’s $21,679.
Related: PwC Forecast On U.S. Filmed Entertainment Spending
This is one of several findings out today from a survey of 50 ad buyers that Cowen & Co says helped it to update and expand its coverage of Internet and New Media stocks. The advertisers are upbeat about 2013, seeing overall U.S. spending grow 4.6% vs 2012. That’s pretty good considering how much the election and Olympics boosted this year’s sales. But the additional dollars will mostly go to digital media — and especially those that appeal to smartphone and tablet owners. Digital will account for 33.5% of next year’s spending, up from 28.7% this year, Cowen analyst John Blackledge says. Meanwhile, TV’s market share will fall to 39.3% from 41.4%. The company notes that “TV consumption has remained static at 12-13 hrs/week” from 2004 to 2010. “Only Internet consumption has increased, from under 6 hrs/week in 2004 to 13 hrs/week in 2010.” The big surprise, though, is how eager advertisers are to spend on mobile. Cowen projects that smartphones, tablets and other portable devices will account for 26% of digital ad sales in 2018, up from 9% this year. But the firm says its survey suggests that the forecast may be too conservative — and that mobile could account for more than half of all digital ad sales in six years. That should concern moguls because Cowen says that “mobile ad dollars come at the expense of traditional ad mediums (TV, print, radio, etc).” Google is … Read More »
Video programmers have been eagerly waiting for technicians to figure out how to present their ads to millions of iPad and iPhone users. And they’ve finally done it. “In the near future, by the end of this month, you will see advertising even on the iOS platform,” Disney CFO Jay Rasulo said today at the Goldman Sachs Annual Communicopia Conference. Indeed, ads are already up on streams of ESPNU. That will be followed by ESPN, ESPN2 and ESPN3. “We have already had advertising in the desktop and PC (and) on the Android phones,” Rasulo says. “Now we will have it on the iOS platform as well.” That will result in “the monetization that we always envisioned.” There’s still an open question about when Nielsen will be able to count mobile viewers, a key to determining how much advertisers should pay. Rasulo says he expects that to be resolved “in the near future.”
This bodes well for a year with the presidential elections and the London Olympics still on the horizon. Overall, advertising expenditures in the U.S. rose 2.6% year-over-year during first-quarter 2012, good for $32.9 billion, according to a Kantar Media report released today. The study found that the 4% growth seen during February and March marked the best stretch in more than 12 months. The television sector led the way with gains in every vertical as sporting events fueled a 7.4% rise in cable TV spend and a 7% rise in network. Syndication, spot and Spanish-language TV also grew, the latter by 20.7%. Print, meanwhile, saw declines across the board, and Internet display ads fell by 4.1%. Among advertisers, Procter & Gamble was top-ranked with spending of $685 million, down 5.5% from a year ago. Comcast was second overall with $482.7 million, a 4.3% increase, as it rolled out its Xfinity service. Among top 10 media companies, News Corp increased its spend by 24.9% (to $357.5 million) and Time Warner by 9% (to $301.5 million) thanks mostly to movie ads promoting summer tentpoles.
Programming execs described pricing for scatter ads in Q1 as being stable, but now we have a clearer idea of what that means: The average unit cost for a 30-second prime time spot on the major broadcast networks dipped 2% vs the period last year to $111,754, according to an analysis out today from media agency TargetCast. The firm, using data from NetCosts and research firm SQAD, says that Fox was on top with $198,088. It was followed by CBS ($115,772), ABC ($95,992) and NBC ($86,914). Although prices dipped slightly, TargetCast says that Q1 was the eighth straight quarter in which ad prices “were virtually flat or increased.” That’s a contrast to the previous period when broadcasters’ unit costs fell as they grappled with declining ratings and the recession. The scatter market was softer this year, TargetCast says, because many advertisers — scared by soaring scatter prices in 2010 and 2011 as the economy recovered — committed more of their budgets to upfront sales. As for cable, prices to reach 24-to-54 year olds at the top 15 ad-supported networks rose 3% to $12,998. ESPN led the pack at $37,329, with TNT a distant second at $18,071.
Disney CEO Bob Iger and First Lady Michelle Obama are poised to make the announcement tomorrow that the company will stop accepting some unhealthy-food ads on its TV and radio shows and websites aimed at kids. Reuters reports Disney plans to cut ads during children’s programming for foods that fail to meet minimum nutrition requirements. If true, it’ll be more bad news for the sweets business, after New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg announced last week his plan to ban oversized soft drinks in the city — a plan frowned upon by the National Association of Theatre Owners owing to the possible impact on movie concession sales.
CBS has sold more than half its advertising inventory for the 2013 broadcast of Super Bowl XLVII in New Orleans, Advertising Age reports. CBS also could sell-out levels approaching 80% in the next few weeks, CBS EVP sports ad sales John Bogusz said. “We are over 50% sold in the game, and we have a number of active negotiations … that will get us closer to 80% sold,” he added — possibly in “a week or two.” Car advertising is driving the pace, notwithstanding GM’s recent decision to forgo Super Bowl ads next year. Hyundai, Audi and others appear to have picked up the slack. GM blamed the high cost of ads — which buyers say range between $3.7 million and $3.8 million per 30-second spot for companies buying multiple ads. Even so, Bogusz said the auto category “is extremely healthy and it has been active.” He also said “We do have movies in the game and … we are in active negotiations with beverages.” The Super Bowl has been the most watched TV broadcast each year for the past three games, which has spurred marketers to buy early and networks to boost rates.