This is one of several findings out today from a survey of 50 ad buyers that Cowen & Co says helped it to update and expand its coverage of Internet and New Media stocks. The advertisers are upbeat about 2013, seeing overall U.S. spending grow 4.6% vs 2012. That’s pretty good considering how much the election and Olympics boosted this year’s sales. But the additional dollars will mostly go to digital media — and especially those that appeal to smartphone and tablet owners. Digital will account for 33.5% of next year’s spending, up from 28.7% this year, Cowen analyst John Blackledge says. Meanwhile, TV’s market share will fall to 39.3% from 41.4%. The company notes that “TV consumption has remained static at 12-13 hrs/week” from 2004 to 2010. “Only Internet consumption has increased, from under 6 hrs/week in 2004 to 13 hrs/week in 2010.” The big surprise, though, is how eager advertisers are to spend on mobile. Cowen projects that smartphones, tablets and other portable devices will account for 26% of digital ad sales in 2018, up from 9% this year. But the firm says its survey suggests that the forecast may be too conservative — and that mobile could account for more than half of all digital ad sales in six years. That should concern moguls because Cowen says that “mobile ad dollars come at the expense of traditional ad mediums (TV, print, radio, etc).” Google is well-positioned to benefit, Blackledge says. But companies including Yahoo and AOL that depend heavily on display ads might run into trouble.
CBS has sold more than half its advertising inventory for the 2013 broadcast of Super Bowl XLVII in New Orleans, Advertising Age reports. CBS also could sell-out levels approaching 80% in the next few weeks, CBS …
With sales cooling in television’s scatter advertising market, negotiations underway now for the huge upfront market will generate less than networks would like Nomura Equity Research’s Michael Nathanson predicts this morning in his thorough quarterly review of ad trends. He forecasts that overall U.S. sales will grow 5.6% in 2012, making him more optimistic than ZenithOptimedia (which projects U.S. sales +3.6%) and MAGNA Global (anticipating +4.0%). Television will be +6.6% this year with help from the additional spending for the 2012 election campaigns and the Summer Olympics — but will decelerate to +0.9% next year. Demand in the broader marketplace “seems to be stable,” he says, after rising 5.3% to $19.2B in the first three months of this year vs the same period last year. The 11.8% boost in Q1 online sales to nearly $5B accounted for much of the growth. But television was up 6.0% to $10.2B. The return of NBA games, following the basketball league’s lockout, helped cable networks to lead the way, +7.9% to $4.8B. But the major broadcast networks enjoyed a 5.0% bump to nearly $3B. Nathanson says that Fox’s ratings struggles with American Idol (and not including the network’s boost from the Super Bowl) offset the mid-to-high single digit growth at CBS and ABC.
It’s springtime for businesses that depend on advertising — especially the Internet and cable TV — according to a new forecast from media services firm ZenithOptimedia. With the economy “in a much better place than it was two years ago,” it says U.S. spending will rise 3.6% this year to $159.7B, and will keep growing by 3.8% next year and 4.8% in 2014. Network TV won’t join the fun: Its sales are expected to be -1% to $17.9B this year, -2.5% in 2013, and -3% in 2014. Even though this year will be helped by the London Olympics, the time difference with the U.S. “will mean fewer events airing live than there were (in 2010) for the Vancouver Olympics,” ZenithOptimedia says. Cable’s a different story, with overall sales expected at +10% to $20.1B this year, then rising +10.5% and +11%. General audience services including USA Network, TBS, and FX are increasingly seen as alternatives to broadcast networks and will build momentum “largely thanks to the return of big-spending automotive and financial advertisers.” The forecasters say they expect to see local spot sales +8% this year to $21.7B (then +2.0% and +4.0%) while syndication is -12% to $2.2B in 2012 (then -10.5% and -11%).
The ranking comes from Advertiser Perceptions, a company that surveys thousands of advertisers each spring and fall to see what they think about media brands with whom they might do business. The polls measure diffferent qualities that contribute to overall brand strength. ABC took the top honor for a media company, as well as for broadcast TV brand strength and sales knowledge. Another Disney-owned property, ESPN, won the brand strength competition among cable networks. Here’s the list of Media Brand winners in categories that also include print, digital, mobile, and ad networks:
Advertising Up 12.5% For China’s Biggest Broadcaster
Foreign and Chinese advertisers will pay about $2.25 billion next year for time on China’s biggest television network CCTV. That’s up roughly 12.5% over 2011. That may seem high compared to the rest of the world which is generally chalking up low …
Dynamic ad insertion isn’t a sexy topic, but you should still pay attention to this announcement today from Comcast and NBCUniversal: It could become a milestone in TV’s evolution into a VOD business. The companies say that they will use a new technology to automatically update ads — initially from Chrysler and Kraft — that run just before and after shows from USA Network, E!, Syfy, Bravo, and Oxygen that viewers watch on-demand. Comcast expects to offer dynamic ad insertion in most of its cable systems by year end. If this is successful, then it could eliminate one of the big stumbling blocks for VOD: Advertisers often need to reach consumers right away, and don’t want to pay for spots on VOD that viewers may see days later. This has been a big concern for studios that want to promote new movies. If the Comcast-NBCU effort is successful, then more advertisers may decide to pay for VOD spots — and programmers will become more willing to offer their shows on-demand. Here’s the Comcast-NBCU release: