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This is one of several findings out today from a survey of 50 ad buyers that Cowen & Co says helped it to update and expand its coverage of Internet and New Media stocks. The advertisers are upbeat about 2013, seeing overall U.S. spending grow 4.6% vs 2012. That’s pretty good considering how much the election and Olympics boosted this year’s sales. But the additional dollars will mostly go to digital media — and especially those that appeal to smartphone and tablet owners. Digital will account for 33.5% of next year’s spending, up from 28.7% this year, Cowen analyst John Blackledge says. Meanwhile, TV’s market share will fall to 39.3% from 41.4%. The company notes that “TV consumption has remained static at 12-13 hrs/week” from 2004 to 2010. “Only Internet consumption has increased, from under 6 hrs/week in 2004 to 13 hrs/week in 2010.” The big surprise, though, is how eager advertisers are to spend on mobile. Cowen projects that smartphones, tablets and other portable devices will account for 26% of digital ad sales in 2018, up from 9% this year. But the firm says its survey suggests that the forecast may be too conservative — and that mobile could account for more than half of all digital ad sales in six years. That should concern moguls because Cowen says that “mobile ad dollars come at the expense of traditional ad mediums (TV, print, radio, etc).” Google is well-positioned to benefit, Blackledge says. But companies including Yahoo and AOL that depend heavily on display ads might run into trouble.
TV’s Share Of Ad Pie Will Decline Next Year As Buyers Flock To Digital Media: Study
Network TV Ratings Drop Emerges As A Big Concern For Wall Street
Analysts have stopped telling clients to wait for more data before they worry about the lousy early ratings for the major networks’ primetime shows. Although “it is probably too early to panic, there are several areas of concern,” Nomura Securities’ Michael Nathanson says this morning. That’s a shift from a few weeks ago when he called the initial ratings figures “disappointing” but possibly the result of quirks in this year’s schedules. The new conventional wisdom is that the major broadcast networks have a serious problem as the latest so-called C3 ratings (those who watch a show’s commercials live and as much as three days after they air) show ABC -15% this season vs the same period last year with CBS -23% and Fox -28% — but NBC +12%. RBC Capital Markets’ David Bank said last week that “our best ‘experts’ tell us that it’s realistic to expect ratings for the Broadcast Year 2012/2013 to decline ~5%-10%.” And all eyes are on CBS, which depends on the performance of its broadcast network more than its rivals at Disney, Comcast, and News Corp. CBS shares are down 10.5% over the last 30 days, far more than the benchmark Standard & Poor’s 500 which is -1.8%. Read More »
Disney CFO Says Ads Are Coming To ESPN Streams To Apple Devices
Video programmers have been eagerly waiting for technicians to figure out how to present their ads to millions of iPad and iPhone users. And they’ve finally done it. “In the near future, by the end of this month, you will … Read More »
TV Leads Ad Spending Uptick In Q1: Study
This bodes well for a year with the presidential elections and the London Olympics still on the horizon. Overall, advertising expenditures in the U.S. rose 2.6% year-over-year during first-quarter 2012, good for $32.9 billion, according to a Kantar Media report … Read More »
Broadcast TV Unit Ad Prices Slipped Slightly In Q1: Report
Programming execs described pricing for scatter ads in Q1 as being stable, but now we have a clearer idea of what that means: The average unit cost for a 30-second prime time spot on the major broadcast networks dipped 2% … Read More »
Disney’s Kid Shows To Limit Junk-Food Ads: Reuters
Disney CEO Bob Iger and First Lady Michelle Obama are poised to make the announcement tomorrow that the company will stop accepting some unhealthy-food ads on its TV and radio shows and websites aimed at kids. Reuters … Read More »
CBS Sells Over 50% Of 2013 Super Bowl Ads
CBS has sold more than half its advertising inventory for the 2013 broadcast of Super Bowl XLVII in New Orleans, Advertising Age reports. CBS also could sell-out levels approaching 80% in the next few weeks, CBS … Read More »
TV Networks Will See Just Mid-Single Digit Growth In Upfront Ad Prices: Analyst
With sales cooling in television’s scatter advertising market, negotiations underway now for the huge upfront market will generate less than networks would like Nomura Equity Research’s Michael Nathanson predicts this morning in his thorough quarterly review of ad trends. He forecasts that overall U.S. sales will grow 5.6% in 2012, making him more optimistic than ZenithOptimedia (which projects U.S. sales +3.6%) and MAGNA Global (anticipating +4.0%). Television will be +6.6% this year with help from the additional spending for the 2012 election campaigns and the Summer Olympics — but will decelerate to +0.9% next year. Demand in the broader marketplace “seems to be stable,” he says, after rising 5.3% to $19.2B in the first three months of this year vs the same period last year. The 11.8% boost in Q1 online sales to nearly $5B accounted for much of the growth. But television was up 6.0% to $10.2B. The return of NBA games, following the basketball league’s lockout, helped cable networks to lead the way, +7.9% to $4.8B. But the major broadcast networks enjoyed a 5.0% bump to nearly $3B. Nathanson says that Fox’s ratings struggles with American Idol (and not including the network’s boost from the Super Bowl) offset the mid-to-high single digit growth at CBS and ABC. Read More »
Booming Auto Ads Could Drive Record Upfront TV Sales: Moody’s
Actually the debt ratings service projects an “advertising windfall” for virtually all traditional media in a report this morning that says auto makers will sell 14M vehicles this year, up 9.3% vs 2011. That should especially delight TV … Read More »
Advertising Will Grow Through 2014 As Economy Recovers: Forecast
It’s springtime for businesses that depend on advertising — especially the Internet and cable TV — according to a new forecast from media services firm ZenithOptimedia. With the economy “in a much better place than it was two years ago,” it says U.S. spending will rise 3.6% this year to $159.7B, and will keep growing by 3.8% next year and 4.8% in 2014. Network TV won’t join the fun: Its sales are expected to be -1% to $17.9B this year, -2.5% in 2013, and -3% in 2014. Even though this year will be helped by the London Olympics, the time difference with the U.S. “will mean fewer events airing live than there were (in 2010) for the Vancouver Olympics,” ZenithOptimedia says. Cable’s a different story, with overall sales expected at +10% to $20.1B this year, then rising +10.5% and +11%. General audience services including USA Network, TBS, and FX are increasingly seen as alternatives to broadcast networks and will build momentum “largely thanks to the return of big-spending automotive and financial advertisers.” The forecasters say they expect to see local spot sales +8% this year to $21.7B (then +2.0% and +4.0%) while syndication is -12% to $2.2B in 2012 (then -10.5% and -11%). Read More »
Advertisers Deem ABC The “Highest Rated Media Brand” For 2011
The ranking comes from Advertiser Perceptions, a company that surveys thousands of advertisers each spring and fall to see what they think about media brands with whom they might do business. The polls measure diffferent qualities that contribute to overall brand strength. ABC took the top honor for a media company, as well as for broadcast TV brand strength and sales knowledge. Another Disney-owned property, ESPN, won the brand strength competition among cable networks. Here’s the list of Media Brand winners in categories that also include print, digital, mobile, and ad networks: Read More »
Top Super Bowl Ad Goes For $4 Million As NBC Inventory Sells Out
Super Bowl ads sell out every year, of course. But today’s news that NBC has landed a record average price of $3.5 million for a 30-second spot in its February 5 broadcast of NFL’s championship game is notable because it … Read More »
Ad Forecasters Say TV And Digital Will Benefit Most From 2012 Growth: UBS Confab
Three of the most prominent ad-forecasting firms kicked off the UBS Annual Global Media and Communications Conference this morning — as they typically do at this event — by unveiling their updated forecasts for 2012. And they pretty much … Read More »
3.5% Ad Sales Growth For Major U.S. Media In 2012, ZenithOptimedia Predicts
The ad firm’s forecast will set an upbeat tone for the Monday kickoff of the UBS Annual Global Media and Communications Conference, the widely watched series of CEO briefings that runs through Wednesday in New York. Zenith’s projected 3.5% … Read More »
ABC Hails Taxis With A Deal To Boost Its Backseat Audience In NYC
When I take a taxi I usually turn off the intrusive TV screen on the back of the driver’s seat. But lots of people don’t, which is why they’re attractive to advertisers — and the folks at ABC, who … Read More »
Global Showbiz Briefs: China, UK
Advertising Up 12.5% For China’s Biggest Broadcaster
Foreign and Chinese advertisers will pay about $2.25 billion next year for time on China’s biggest television network CCTV. That’s up roughly 12.5% over 2011. That may seem high compared to the rest of the world which is generally chalking up low … Read More »
Survey: Old Is Gold For Endorsements
If you want to sell a product, don’t kid around. That’s the clear message if you buy the results of a survey just released by global market research firm Ipsos. The hottest huckster: 89-year-old Betty White. She is America’s … Read More »
Does It Pay To Blur TV Commercials And Content? Marketers Don’t Know
Marketers have done so much to blur the line between entertainment and advertising that it’s often hard for consumers to tell the difference. But here’s an interesting little factoid from a new Association of National Advertisers survey … Read More »
Comcast And NBCU Partner To Promote VOD Ad-Swapping Technology
Dynamic ad insertion isn’t a sexy topic, but you should still pay attention to this announcement today from Comcast and NBCUniversal: It could become a milestone in TV’s evolution into a VOD business. The companies say that they will use a new technology to automatically update ads — initially from Chrysler and Kraft — that run just before and after shows from USA Network, E!, Syfy, Bravo, and Oxygen that viewers watch on-demand. Comcast expects to offer dynamic ad insertion in most of its cable systems by year end. If this is successful, then it could eliminate one of the big stumbling blocks for VOD: Advertisers often need to reach consumers right away, and don’t want to pay for spots on VOD that viewers may see days later. This has been a big concern for studios that want to promote new movies. If the Comcast-NBCU effort is successful, then more advertisers may decide to pay for VOD spots — and programmers will become more willing to offer their shows on-demand. Here’s the Comcast-NBCU release: Read More »
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