FINAL Intl Box Office: ‘How To Train Your Dragon 2′ Rides To $43.2M; ‘Maleficent’ Casts $21.8M China Spell; More
Highlights: Maleficent (DIS) crosses $500M global led by China bow; How To Train Your Dragon 2 (FOX) scores No. 1s in 30+ markets; Edge Of Tomorrow (WB) adds $21.3M; The Fault In Our Stars (FOX) shines bright with $19.9M; Godzilla (WB) cumes $67.7M in China; 22 Jump Street (SONY) shows muscle in World Cup markets; Jersey Boys (WB) plays to upscale crowds for $1.6M.
FINAL UPDATE, MONDAY, 6:03 PM: All final numbers in for Clint Eastwood’s Jersey Boys, Disney’s Maleficent, Fox/DreamWorks Animation’s How to Train Your Dragon 2 and X-Men: Days Of Future Past, Sony’s 22 Jump Street and Heaven Is For Real, the Tom Cruise sci-fi actioner Edge of Tomorrow and Godzilla from Warner Bros., Fox’s tearjerker The Fault in Our Stars, the Seth Rogen comedy Neighbors, Richard Linklater’s Boyhood, the female-centric comedy The Other Woman and the billion-dollar grosser Frozen, which is still at No. 1 for a 15th week in a row in Japan and Paramount’s final grosses for Noah (which debuted in Japan last weekend). Transcendence added on Tuesday at 10:45 AM.
UPDATE, SUNDAY, 7:04 PM PT: This weekend was ultimately pretty stable against last with just a 5% drop across the top 10 titles internationally. That’s not altogether surprising given last weekend was largely a Hollywood holdover frame with some new market plays and only one major new entry in How To Train Your Dragon 2. That movie rolled into a further 28 markets this weekend, but with Maleficent hitting China in its 4th frame, HTTYD2 missed the top overseas spot by a scant $1.2M in the estimates. Disney’s fairy tale spin starring Angelina Jolie earned $21.8M in China and an overall $47.9M extra this weekend. HTTYD2 grossed $43.5M, notably scoring the second-biggest animated opening ever in Brazil with $6.8M and the No. 1 spot. Given that Fox also has the No. 2 film in that market, teen romance The Fault In Our Stars, the World Cup counterprogramming strategy there is paying off. The latter was even up 6% this weekend with a local cume of $18.26M after three frames. See the original post below for the other pics still running notable plays.
FINAL BOX OFFICE: First Half Of 2014 No Growth From Year Earlier As ‘Think Like A Man Too’ Debuts With $29M+; ‘Jersey Boys’ With $13.3M
OPENING: Think Like A Man Too (SONY/SCREEN GEMS) to come in at No. 1 and around $29.2M as first predicted; Jersey Boys (WB) at No. 4 at $13.3M.
6th UPDATE, MONDAY 3:16 PM: The first half of 2014 is flat so far — as in no growth year from last year — up only .5% in terms of box office revenue. The summer box office so far is actually down around 15% this year as well so Transformers: Age of Extinction will be a welcome offering this weekend. One note is that last summer and last year both were revenue records, driven by such top hits as Hunger Games: Catching Fire, Iron Man 3, Despicable Me 2, and Man of Steel to name a few. This year is kind of seen as a transition year before sequelmania hits in 2015.
UPDATE, 7:05 AM: Add Cowen & Co’s Doug Creutz to the list of analysts lowering their revenue estimates for How To Train Your Dragon 2 – and DreamWorks Animation — after the film’s second weekend. Today he cut his domestic box office forecast for Dragon 2 by 28% to $180M — less than the previous film’s $218M. And he dropped his international BO projection by 11.9% to $495M. The upshot: DWA should end 2014 with a 7 cent per share loss, not the 28 cent profit he had anticipated. While bulls look ahead to higher TV revenues and lower film costs in 2016, “given recent film performance and an upcoming film slate that has few obvious winners, DWA still appears to us to be a relatively unappealing stock,” he says.
PREVIOUS, Monday PM: The stock price fell 4.2% to $23.44 today after a second lower-than-expected weekend for How To Train Your Dragon 2, for a 16.2% drop since the Friday before the film opened. Dragon 2 generated $25.3M at domestic box offices, down 49% from its opening weekend, for a total of $95.1M. With this trajectory, the film “will likely miss our 6-week est. of $230M,” Wells Fargo’s Marci Ryvicker says. B. Riley’s Eric Wold cut his domestic forecast by 36% to $175M, and his international by 20% to $400M. As a result, the analyst trimmed his target price for DreamWorks Animation shares from $37 to $32. He cut his revenue estimate for the company’s current fiscal year by 5.5%, and cash flow forecast by 14.8% to $109M. Even so, Wold says that “international trends …
Deadline’s Anita Busch and Dominic Patten look back at last weekend’s box office winners and look ahead at this weekend’s openers, Jersey Boys and Think Like A Man Too, and beyond.
FINAL BOX OFFICE: ’22 Jump Street’ Ends Weekend With $57M, ‘How To Train Your Dragon 2′ No. 2 With $49.4M
OPENING: 22 Jump Street (SONY) looks like it may be $60M or a little under; How to Train Your Dragon 2 (FOX) should come in around $50M.
FINAL UPDATE, MONDAY, 1:11 PM: It’s the morning after and the harsh reality has set in. 22 Jump Street came in below $60M at $57M (still pretty darn good) while How to Train Your Dragon 2 tallied $49.5M when dust cleared this morning. What happened? Father’s Day, good weather, NBA Finals, and Stanley Cup finals in the top two TV markets (take your pick) all suppressed Sunday moviegoing a bit. 22 Jump Street mid-week numbers will be interesting to watch as there is a great possibility that it’s already been there-done that with its core fans, but this weekend only sees the opening of the older demo Jersey Boys from Clint Eastwood and the Kevin Hart-Tim Story re-teaming with Think Like A Man 2.
Dragon 2, although it didn’t open to higher numbers as expected,still is well-executed and the distribution date was well chosen. Expect it to keep playing straight through to mid-July when Planes: Fire & Rescue bows from Disney as families will be looking to it and to Maleficent until then. (Earth to Echo comes out in between). Edge of Tomorrow edged out Fox’s The Fault in Our Stars this weekend as the latter took a bad tumble, down 69% in its second weekend. Edge is actually holding fairly steady (-43%) but this is a big-budget bummer for Warner Bros. at the domestic box office. Here’s final chart for Father’s Day weekend:
How To Train Your Dragon 2’s lower-than-expected $50M domestic box office in its opening weekend left many DreamWorks Animation shareholders feeling burned. The company’s stock price is down 12.2% in early trading as several analysts lowered their box office estimates for the film – which they’d hoped would help DWA recover after it took writedowns on three of its four previous releases. Cowen & Co’s Doug Creutz called Dragon 2’s performance “somewhat 2-thless” – he figured it would come in closer to $60M — and lowered his ultimate worldwide box office estimate by 20% to $650M. If Dragon doesn’t “significantly grow box office,” then it’s “fair to ask if there are any implications about the strength of DWA’s brand.” Sterne Agee’s Vasily Karasyov says he expects Dragon 2 to gross $180M domestically, nearly 20% below the Street’s pre-opening consensus, and 17% below the gross for the first film. That kind of performance from a sequel to a hit would worry investors “given that 3 of the 7 films scheduled for release through the end of fiscal 2016 are sequels, including How To Train Your Dragon 3.”
But others say it’s too early to judge. B. Riley & Co’s Eric Wold says that animated films typically have long runs in theaters – and notes that Dragon 2 was well received in reviews on Rotten Tomatoes. He sees the $50M opening weekend “as a glass half full and will both monitor domestic trends over the coming weeks relative to our projections …
BOX OFFICE: ’22 Jump Street’, No. 1, ‘How To Train Your Dragon 2′ No. 2 Around $50M In Big Sequel Weekend
OPENING: 22 Jump Street (SONY) looks like it may be $60M or a little under; How to Train Your Dragon 2 (FOX) should come in around $50M.
9th UPDATE, SUNDAY 7:15 AM: A softer-than-expected Saturday for moviegoing now has 22 Jump Street just a smidgen over or under $60M and How to Train Your Dragon 2 hovering around $50M+, yet those are still two good openings and account for a significant 60% of the Top Ten box office marketshare this AM. 22 Jump Street started out strong Friday, front-loaded with the teens and 2o-somethings who had long anticipated this sequel. By yesterday’s matinees, it was clear that it was softening and looks like it dropped 26% from Friday (that includes that $5.5M late night Thursday). It becomes the second-biggest R-rated comedy behind Hangover II and grossed 65% higher than the first installment.
Hot Trailer: Focus Features’ ‘The Boxtrolls’ Aims To Join DWA’s ‘Dragon’ As Early Animated Oscar Bet (Video)
It looks like the 2014 Oscar race for Best Animated Feature is already heating up. DreamWorks Animation’s How To Train Your Dragon 2 opens today and could be No. 1 for the weekend. At any rate, it is getting such superlative reviews (especially for a sequel) that it is already looking like a front-runner for that Oscar that was denied to the original in 2010, when it had to compete against the Disney/Pixar juggernaut Toy Story 3, which also benefited from a Best Picture nomination. That movie of course was a second sequel and it obviously wasn’t hurt by the label. DWA has already started its campaign with mailings to various awards groups of the hardcover coffee table book The Art Of How To Train Your Dragon 2 (I have already gotten two copies including one yesterday that came in a black leather backpack that looked suspiciously like Toothless, the star Dragon of the title).
With a sterling 92% fresh score at Rotten Tomatoes, Dragon 2 is definitely in play and many pundits are already predicting it to win, even though it’s only June and there’s more to come including the latest from Focus Features, The Boxtrolls. Focus started its campaign for their animated film even earlier by sending select media a big toy box container with special slots for the various characters in the film starting with Eggs and Fish and the promise of two more shipments. Yesterday, a second shipment arrived containing Winnie and Shoe. Yes folks, the campaign has started in earnest. Here’s the first full trailer:
Laika, the Portland, OR-based animation studio behind Boxtrolls, received Oscar nominations for its first two animated features ParaNorman and Coraline, and now are hoping the third time is the charm with The Boxtrolls, which opens September 26 as the company’s third stop-motion release with Focus Features.
When France hosted – and ultimately won — the 1998 World Cup, Parisians were encouraged by the mayor’s office to be nice to our guests. Billboards went up all over town reminding us to smile and heartily say “Bonjour!” Many were skeptical, but that feeling changed quickly. This year, Brazilians, not known for the same frosty exterior as the French, are gearing up for their own World Cup as hosts (and favorites), but the atmosphere is not looking quite so warm. With preparations woefully behind, some stadiums not at completion and a general sense that too much money has been spent on the event, many locals are exasperated with the whole thing before it’s even begun. A crime wave has broken out in Rio and strikes have started with the threat of more looming. Despite all of this, it would be foolhardy to think the country won’t get behind its team and focus on the 12 pitches where the beautiful game will be played over the next month. Indeed, all over the world, fans will start planning their days around kickoff times come Thursday with a projected 1 billion people tuning in to the opening Brazil vs Croatia match. That’s a lot of butts on couches and bar stools — and not in movie theater seats. With that in mind, here’s a look at how the studios strategize around the world where some countries embrace the sport as though it were a matter of life and death, and others don’t get so worked up.
It’s fair to say the U.S. falls into the latter category. Yet, there has been some movement in recent years. ESPN, which aired the Euro Cup in 2012 and the 2010 World Cup from South Africa, has seen increased ratings, and execs this week all but guaranteed additional growth this year (see the full U.S. TV schedule below). When the Americans tied England in the Group C opening game of the 2010 World Cup, a studio exec tells me it did lead to some effect on cinema-going. Roundly, though, while the studios have put the mega sporting event into their international strategic plans over the past decade, industry insiders contend they don’t pay too much mind to the tournament’s domestic impact. Despite the preponderance of kids who play the sport, soccer has just never been massive in the States.
With the major European national teams like Germany, France and Spain, box office is usually down by about 50%-60% in those markets if the home team is playing, and about 20% if they’re not. And yet, Hollywood doesn’t see having a major soccer year as a pass. As one exec says, “You don’t go, ‘it’s the Euro Cup, therefore we get to have a bad year.’ In theory, you might say, ‘It’s World Cup next year, if you’re really expecting us to do $2 billion international, it’s unrealistic.’” However, “Everyone expects it to work itself out. There are losers that were going to be losers anyway, they’re not casualties of the World Cup.”
That’s the big question DreamWorks Animation investors are asking ahead of this weekend’s release of the studio’s first major film since March’s Mr. Peabody & Sherman. That film resulted in a $57M impairment charge, making it DWA’s third flop out of its last four releases. So it needs How to Train Your Dragon 2 to succeed. If if does, then it “will boost investor confidence around the DreamWorks story,” B. Riley & Co’s Eric Wold says this morning.
Investors are optimistic. DreamWorks shares are up 20% over the last 30 days, wiping out the dip they took around P&S. Imax helped yesterday when it said that it will release a digitally remastered 3D version of the film into its domestic theaters starting this weekend — a change from the original plan to just offer in some overseas markets. That’s a “vote of confidence from Imax management…as well as a potential incremental box office boost for the film,” Wold says.
But Dragon 2‘s financial fate partly depends on what happens with soccer’s World Cup, which kicks off on Thursday. The film opens in Latin America this weekend as the tournament gets underway, and will hit most of Europe next week. “Excluding the U.S., the countries participating in the World Cup contributed an estimated 48%” of DreamWorks’ worldwide box office results, says Janney Capital Markets’ Tony Wible. Will potential ticket buyers stay home to watch the games — or could Dragon 2 benefit from the light …
As my French fog lifts in the wake of my return from the Cannes Film Festival it’s a good time to look at how it might have impacted the 2014 Oscar race as the calendar turns to June and we have the first big benchmark out of the way. That’s not to say that Cannes is a huge indicator of where this thing will be come Fall when it really heats up, but this is one of the better years I think in terms of Cannes and potential for its ultimate impact on the awards season. Some years are better than others. You might recall in 2011 three films in the official Cannes selection, The Tree Of Life, Midnight In Paris and The Artist all went on to Best Picture nominations with the latter even winning. It’s never too early to speculate.
Sony Pictures Classics (which had Midnight In Paris) certainly seems to think 2014 is going to similarly big so they put out a press release earlier this week touting their triumph on the Cote d’Azur . They held the hot hand this year with a flurry of titles they brought and bought to Croisette. They come out of Cannes very strong with contenders of various stripes across several categories including Best Picture for Foxcatcher and Mr. Turner (with an outside shot for Directors Fortnight entry Whiplash which actually …
Among other things, Cannes this year might as well be called the Jeffrey Katzenberg International Film Festival. He’s had his cast and star dragon from How To Train Your Dragon 2 cruising the Croisette looking for paparazzi — and finding them. He’s had his cast, including new Oscar winner Cate Blanchett, working the press. He’s celebrating in style the 20th anniversary of DreamWorks Animation here with a gala World Premiere screening in a prime Friday night Out Of Competition slot in the Grand Lumiere Theatre, where fest topper Thierry Fremaux broke all precedent at this by-the-book festival and personally introduced the film and its players. DWA threw a big bash at Baoli beach featuring a special exhibit of concept art with more than 100 pieces from the film – and the weather cooperated. Perfect night on the Cote d’Azur. On Saturday at noon at the Palais, Katzenberg will be the recipient of a rare Commander of Arts honor presented by the French Minister Of Culture. And best of all he’s getting tons of worldwide publicity in advance of the June 6 launch of the sequel to one of DWA’s biggest hits, and one I think should be a major Best Animated Feature Oscar contender. It really manages to top the 2010 first film in terms of heart, laughs, action and pure exhilaration. And it won a major ovation at its official screening Friday. On top of all that, Katzenberg’s “date” for Saturday’s Vanity Fair party at Hotel du Cap is Harvey Weinstein. Yes, they are going together. “I told him he will be the missus — Mr. and Mrs. Katzenberg,” he laughed.
WonderCon: 20th Century Fox Executes Bryan Singer PR Control During ‘X-Men: Days Of Future Past’ Panel
While fans were allowed to ask questions to the string of talent from Dawn Of The Planet Of The Apes, The Maze Runner and DreamWorks’ How To Train Your Dragon 2 at 20th Century Fox’s WonderCon panel, the one creative talent not fielding questions from the crowd was X-Men: Days Of Future Past writer and producer Simon Kinberg. While a “no questions” policy wasn’t blatantly announced, Fox gracefully saved its X-Men presentation for the final portion of its nearly two-hour panel. And it was brief next to the half-hour-plus devoted to Planet Of The Apes. Kinberg stepped in at the last minute after the studio pulled Bryan Singer in the wake of the director being slammed with a sexual abuse civil lawsuit. Kinberg promised the crowd that he had footage that was never seen before, but that wasn’t the case: He showed the same clip that was on the MTV Movie Awards last weekend with the young X-Men including Kitty Pryde, Colossus and Iceman fighting a rather large latex figure who absorbs their powers. When Singer’s name appeared onscreen in the trailer that was shown at WonderCon today, the crowd was unfazed.