The trading day ended with a thud. The benchmark Standard & Poor’s 500 wound up -2.1% as word spread that Germany might balk at a proposal to help bail out debt-laden members of the European Union including Greece and Portugal. That affected media stocks; the Dow Jones U.S. Media Index fell 3%. Disney was the hardest hit among the Big Guns, with shares off 3.2%. It was followed by News Corp (-3.1%), CBS (-3%), Comcast (-2.9%), Time Warner (-2.7%), Viacom (-2.3%), and Sony (-2.1%). Newspaper companies were big losers led by McClatchy (-10%), New York Times (-7.3%), E.W. Scripps (-6.5%), and Gannett (-6.3%). But others weren’t far behind: Cablevision (-6.1%) hit a 52-week low. The losers list also included Crown Media (-6.6%), AOL (-5.9%), DirecTV (-4.7%), Live Nation (-4.4%), Barnes & Noble (-4.3%), TiVo (-4.2%), Sirius XM (-4.2%) and Dish Network (-4.2%). Today’s few gainers were led by Coinstar, up 7.8% on a report that its Redbox unit will team up with Verizon to offer an online video service. Martha Stewart Living Omnimedia was up 1.7% the day after J.C. Penney said it bought 16.6% of the company. And Madison Square Garden was up 1.7%, hitting a 52-week high, after Morgan Stanley’s Benjamin Swinburne changed his recommendation to “overweight” from “underweight” following the resolution of the NBA lockout.
The federal government will have to slash $1.2T in spending, mostly beginning in 2013, if the 12-member congressional Super Committee can’t strike a deficit reduction deal soon. They still appear split — even though, as a practical matter, they have to reach an agreement by midnight in order to have something ready for the official Wednesday deadline. That drove most company shares down, with a late uptick possibly softening the blow. The Dow’s U.S. Media Index was down 1.2% about 20 minutes before the end of the trading day. Disney was hardest hit among the industry’s biggest players: Its shares were -3.5%, followed by Sony (-3.4%), CBS (-2.3%), Viacom(-2%), and Time Warner (-1%). Comcast was up about 0.5%. Among other media companies, Cinedigm (-8.8%) and RealD (-7.2%) took the worst beatings. Others down at least 4% include E.W. Scripps, Entercom, Crown Media, Netflix, National CineMedia, Live Nation, LIN TV, and Dish Network. Gainers include Westwood One, Barnes & Noble, Sirius XM, Radio One, McClatchy, and McGraw Hill.
The bears are back. After a relatively calm week, stocks prices across the board — including in media — are tanking today following reports that point to rising unemployment and inflation, and weakness in manufacturing. An hour before the market close, the Dow Jones, S&P 500, and NASDAQ indexes for media stocks each were down at least 5.4%. Among the Big Media giants CBS is -10.7% followed by Time Warner (-6.1%), Sony (-5.7%), News Corp (-5.2%), Viacom (-5.2%), Comcast (-4.8%), and Disney (-3.2%). Elsewhere on our watch list, Pandora Media (-12.9) is taking the biggest hit with LIN TV -9.4%. Others falling at least 8% include Gannett, Live Nation, Entercom, IMAX, Radio One, McGraw-Hill, and Discovery. Those off at least 7% include Cablevision, Amazon, TiVo, Netflix, McClatchy, Coinstar, Arbitron, and Scripps Networks. And companies down at least 6% include Barnes & Noble, Washington Post, E.W. Scripps, Sinclair Broadcasting, Outdoor Channel, and Dish Network. The only gainers are Lionsgate (+0.3%) and Cinedigm (+1.3%).
Media stocks likely will take even more punishment if the economy weakens. When times are bad shares of companies with high fixed costs, lots of debt, and that depend on ad sales, fall more dramatically than the overall market, Needham & Co analyst Laura Martin says today. She says that Discovery may be the best media stock to own now — but adds that it would be even safer for investors to own a fund of stocks that mirrors the S&P 500.
UPDATE, 2 PM: The market deteriorated as the day wore on, continuing the worst market slump since 2008. The Dow Jones U.S. Broadcasting and Entertainment Index closed down 7.3% — exceeding the 5.6% decline in the Dow Jones Industrial Average, 6.7% drop in the Standard & Poor’s 500, and 6.9% fall at NASDAQ. CBS’ -10.3% slide made it the leading loser among media’s Big Guns. It was followed by News Corp (-7.7%), Viacom (-7.1%), Comcast (-6.6%), Sony (-6.4%), Disney (-6.1%), and Time Warner (-5.8%).
Double-digit losers include AMC Networks (-12.8%), LIN TV (-12.7%), Sirius XM (-12.7%), RealD (-12.6%), Cumulus Media (-11.9%), TiVo (-11.4%), Entercom (-10.9%), Westwood One (-10.8%), and E.W. Scripps (-10.3%). Those losing at least 9% include National CineMedia, Dish Network, Arbitron, Sinclair Broadcasting, Rovi, Outdoor Channel, Crown Media, Electronic Arts, Cablevision, and Coinstar.