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Gray And Gannett Seen As Top Political TV Ad Beneficiaries This Year

By DAVID LIEBERMAN, Executive Editor | Thursday November 1, 2012 @ 11:53am PDTTags: Political Ads, Political Advertising

UPDATE: Gannett challenges SNL Kagan’s estimate that sales of political ads at the company’s TV stations will decline 10.1% vs 2008. Gannett Broadcasting President Dave Lougee recently told analysts that the company expects election-related ads to hit a  ”new high” in 2012 following Q3 sales of $42M, +61.5% vs 2008.   

PREVIOUS, 11:53 AM: The situation is kind of like a children’s soccer game where everybody’s a winner — except, perhaps, the viewers in battleground states who’ve been bombarded with campaign related commercials. Local TV stations likely will end up with anywhere from $2.6B to $2.8B in political ads this year, according to two projections today. SNL Kagan has a lower number, which is still a 68% increase vs four years ago. The 10 largest publicly traded broadcast TV affiliate groups should end up with $625.3M, +41.9%. The research firm says that Mitt Romney outspent President Obama in TV and radio ads in swing states including Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Florida. Gray Television will wind up with about $90.5M, up 86.7% vs 2008 followed by Gannett with $84.5M (-10.1%), E.W. Scripps with $79.5M (+93.8%), and Sinclair with $75.0M (+82.5%).  READ MORE »

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Political Ads Will Boost Local TV Sales By A Record $2.7B This Year: Forecast

By DAVID LIEBERMAN, Executive Editor | Thursday October 11, 2012 @ 2:10pm PDTTags: Political Ads, Political Advertising

Political Ad Spending 2012The projection today from ad firm Magna Global is a little conservative compared to some other forecasts. For example, Wells Fargo Securities’ Marci Ryvicker projected yesterday that political campaigns and groups will spend $3B+ this … Read More »

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Political Ads Will Fuel TV Acquisitions, Debt Reduction, And Investor Payments: Moody’s

By DAVID LIEBERMAN, Executive Editor | Thursday September 13, 2012 @ 2:08pm PDTTags: Political Ads, Political Advertising

TV stations and their investors are already the big winners from this year’s elections. Political campaigns and groups will funnel a record $2.8B to local broadcasters, according to a report today by Moody’s Investors Service. And most recipients … Read More »

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Political TV Ad Spending Soars In July, Especially In Mid-West: Analyst

By DAVID LIEBERMAN, Executive Editor | Friday August 10, 2012 @ 9:12am PDTTags: Political Ads, Political Advertising

Political pros took a keen interest in July in markets including Zanesville, Ohio; Sioux City and Davenport, Iowa; Charlottesville, Virginia; and Las Vegas and Reno, Nevada. They saw the biggest increase in political ad spending relative to their market size in the month according to a report out this morning from Wells Fargo Securities’ Marci Ryvicker. The prolific analyst tracks political spending closer than just about anyone on Wall Street. She says that campaigns have spent $765.6M on TV so far in 2012 (ending July 29). The vast majority of that — $579.6M — went to local stations, including $120.7M in July. Of the local total so far in 2012, 42.5% was for presidential campaigns, 21.8% for ballot initiatives, 18.6% for Senate races, 7.6% for House contests, 5.0% for gubernatorial races, and 4.4% for other. The top markets measured by dollars spent are Cleveland ($24.8M); Los Angeles ($20.6M); Tampa ($19.4M); Washington, DC ($18.2M); and Las Vegas ($17.2M) — with much of the cash going to outlets owned by Fox, CBS, NBC, Sinclair, and Disney. But Ryvicker notes that these cities typically end up on top because of their size, not because they have the most contentious races. She says it’s more revealing to look at political spending relative to the total ad sales in the market. Read More »

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Court Rejects Broadcaster Effort to Delay Web Disclosure Of Political Ad Info

By DAVID LIEBERMAN, Executive Editor | Friday July 27, 2012 @ 12:56pm PDTTags: FCC, National Association of Broadcasters, Political Ads, Political Advertising

A minor victory this afternoon for those who’d like to see television stations disclose on the Web the same information about political ad sales that they already have to make public on paper. The U.S. Court of … Read More »

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Presidential Campaigns Pull TV Ads In Colorado Following Theater Shooting

By DAVID LIEBERMAN, Executive Editor | Friday July 20, 2012 @ 11:22am PDTTags: Colorado movie theater shooting, Political Advertising

President Obama and presumptive GOP nominee Mitt Romney — as well as their leading Super PAC supporters — have temporarily yanked their ads in the state, according to multiple press reports. Nobody’s saying how long … Read More »

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TV Stations’ Political Ad Data Gets Due Date

By THE DEADLINE TEAM | Tuesday July 3, 2012 @ 3:26pm PDTTags: FCC, Political Advertising

The top four TV stations in the top 50 markets will have to send their political ad data to the Federal Communications Commission for online posting beginning the first week of August, according to Multichannel … Read More »

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House Panel Votes To Kill FCC Rule Opening TV Political Spending Data

By DAVID LIEBERMAN, Executive Editor | Thursday June 7, 2012 @ 9:39am PDTTags: Big Deals TV, FCC, Political Advertising

It’s disquieting to see how far broadcasters and their allies are willing to go to kill the recent FCC decision to help voters understand how money’s being spent on TV to influence elections. Yesterday, a House Appropriations subcommittee approved by a voice vote legislation that would prevent the FCC from using any funds to implement an order in April that involves large TV stations: The four largest stations in the top 50 markets would have to put online the information about political ad buys that they already must disclose on paper to people who visit the station. The FCC says it’s a common-sense change that would enhance democracy by making the system more transparent. But Subcommittee Chairwoman Jo Ann Emerson (R-Mo.) called the order ”micromanagement by the FCC,” the National Journal reports. She also questioned why the rule just applies to TV stations instead of political ad buyers, or other media including radio, cable TV, newspapers, direct mail, outdoor advertising and the Internet. The bill approved by the subcommittee goes next to the full Appropriations Committee for approval. Meanwhile the National Association of Broadcasters has asked the U.S. Court of Appeals to overturn the FCC rules. Read More »

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Political Ads Really Do Provide A Bonanza For TV Stations: Report

By DAVID LIEBERMAN, Executive Editor | Wednesday May 16, 2012 @ 5:18am PDTTags: Political Ads, Political Advertising

The Columbia Journalism Review provides a useful look at the economics of political TV ads here as it tries to answer an important, and deceptively complicated, question: Will much of the record $3B+ in estimated campaign spending this election cycle represent new money for TV stations? CJR grapples with a school of thought that says the impact is frequently exaggerated. The political buy, the thinking goes, just knocks out other advertisers, including ones who might have paid a higher price for the slot. Stations have to make time available to campaigns at what’s known as the “lowest unit rate” — the price offered to the station’s best customers for the time period. Still, CJR finds that “campaign ad dollars are mostly gravy.” Stations frequently increase their advertising inventory in the weeks leading up to an election. Other commercials usually aren’t bumped; most can be moved to air on days and times that are harder to sell. “That allows broadcasters a fair amount of Read More »

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Political TV Ad Spending Picking Up After A Slow Start: Analyst

By DAVID LIEBERMAN, Executive Editor | Monday April 30, 2012 @ 5:55am PDTTags: Political Advertising

The conventional wisdom holds that the 2012 campaign will set records for TV spending. But that’s not how things have gone so far, says Wells Fargo Securities analyst Marci Rivicker — who follows political ads closer than just about anybody on Wall Street. Campaigns have spent $275.5M on TV ads through April 15; nearly 66% went directly to broadcast stations while the rest went to national TV and cable. But spending and fundraising through February was 20% below the average in presidential year campaigns from 2000 through 2008. The large number of GOP presidential debates “dampened the need for advertising,” Ryvicker says, adding that there wasn’t “a clear path to the Republican nomination.” But spending in March was 12% over the average for the month in the previous cycles. That leaves Ryvicker unsure of whether 2012 political TV spending will come in ahead or behind her forecast of $2.7B. Modeled on the last presidential election year in 2008, it would fall short at $2.3B. But based on 2010, the total would hit $2.9B. It’s probably Read More »

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Broadcasters Ask The FCC To Let Them Keep Political Ad Data Off The Web

By DAVID LIEBERMAN, Executive Editor | Friday April 13, 2012 @ 2:50pm PDTTags: FCC, NAB, Political Advertising

Who’d have thought that TV broadcasters would be so bent out of shape by a proposal to let Web users see political ad sales information that stations already provide on paper to people who visit a station? But they are, and they’re leaving little to chance as the FCC heads toward an April 27 meeting where commissioners are due to vote on a measure that would require stations to feed their info to an FCC database. NAB chief Gordon Smith met yesterday with FCC Chairman Julius Genachowski saying that stations shouldn’t be required to change. Among his reasons: Broadcasters fear that they’ll lose bargaining leverage with advertisers. If buyers can go online and see how much a station charged for specific political ads, the thinking goes, then they’d know how low a station’s willing to go. Federal law enables candidates to pay the lowest rates a station provides to its most favored commercial advertisers. Smith talked about a possible compromise that would only require stations to feed the FCC info about total charges for political ads — requiring those interested in specific invoices to visit the stations. Read More »

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Public Broadcasters Can Accept Political Ads Court Says

By DAVID LIEBERMAN, Executive Editor | Thursday April 12, 2012 @ 3:23pm PDTTags: NPR, PBS, Political Advertising, US Court Of Appeals

Some PBS and NPR stations may be in for an election year bonanza if today’s ruling from the U.S. Court of Appeals in San Francisco stands. Justices overturned part of a statute that bars federally funded public broadcasters from accepting political and issue ads; they upheld the ban on commercials for goods and services from for-profit entities. The law was designed to keep public broadcasters from feeling financial pressures to reach a mass audience, which could result in less public service programming including educational shows for kids. But the court said that “neither logic nor evidence” show that stations would abandon their public service mission in order to score issue and political ads. Lawmakers’ decision to let stations accept ads from non-profits was “fatal” to the case that the FCC made to defend the law. “That is the kind of picking-and-choosing among different types of speech that Congress may not do” under the First Amendment without proof that it’s needed to serve a “substantial interest,” the court said. Read More »

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TV Station Political Ad Data Will Be Available Online, One Way Or Another

By DAVID LIEBERMAN, Executive Editor | Saturday March 24, 2012 @ 12:06pm PDTTags: FCC, NAB, Political Advertising

You have to hand it to Pro Publica for coming up with a creative work-around to one of the weirdest disputes at the FCC — the debate over whether to make local TV station data about political advertising available online. The public interest journalism group has begun to enlist people to visit local TV stations and copy the info about political ads that they’re already required to make public on paper. Reporters will put the files online for everyone to see. “These paper files contain detailed data on all political ads that run on the channel, such as when they aired, who bought the time and how much they paid,” Pro Publica says. ”It’s a transparency gold mine, allowing the public to see how campaigns and outside groups are influencing elections.” The FCC seems to share that desire to make the info easy for people to find. It’s weighing a proposal that would require stations to put their reports online. Public interest groups love the idea. The deans or directors of 12 major college journalism programs also told the FCC that the files include “vital information about the American political system.” Read More »

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Ad Forecasters Say TV And Digital Will Benefit Most From 2012 Growth: UBS Confab

By DAVID LIEBERMAN, Executive Editor | Monday December 5, 2011 @ 6:38am PSTTags: Advertising, Advertising Sales, Internet Advertising, Network TV Advertising, Political Advertising, TV Advertising, ZenithOptimedia

Three of the most prominent ad-forecasting firms kicked off the UBS Annual Global Media and Communications Conference this morning — as they typically do at this event — by unveiling their updated forecasts for 2012. And they pretty much … Read More »

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3.5% Ad Sales Growth For Major U.S. Media In 2012, ZenithOptimedia Predicts

By DAVID LIEBERMAN, Executive Editor | Sunday December 4, 2011 @ 4:01pm PSTTags: Advertising, Advertising Sales, Cinema Advertising, Internet Advertising, Network TV Advertising, Oprah Winfrey, Political Advertising, TV Advertising, ZenithOptimedia

The ad firm’s forecast will set an upbeat tone for the Monday kickoff of the UBS Annual Global Media and Communications Conference, the widely watched series of CEO briefings that runs through Wednesday in New York. Zenith’s projected 3.5% … Read More »

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TV Stations To Reap 2012 Election Windfall

By DAVID LIEBERMAN, Executive Editor | Sunday June 26, 2011 @ 1:35pm PDTTags: 2012 GOP presidential candidates, 2012 Presidential Race, Elections, Political Advertising, Political Contributions, President Barack Obama 2012 Campaign



If you hate political ads, then I have bad news for you: Next year, White House and congressional candidates will flood television and other media with campaign messages as the 2012 election shapes up as the most expensive in history. Democrats and Republicans are already squeezing contributors because spending will soar as this is the first election in more than a decade without limits on corporate and union contributions. TV stations will benefit most: In 2010 about 75% of ad budgets went to broadcast TV vs. 7.9% for cable and 4.3% for Web destinations, according to PQ Media. But a lot could change this time out. Here are some of the key questions:

How much will be spent on advertising? It’ll be a record, but there’s no consensus on the likely total. Research firm Washington Analysis projects $4 billion, up from $3.2 billion in 2010 and $2.6 billion in 2008. Moody’s Investors Service says spending in 2012 could rise as much as 18% vs 2010 in “an unprecedented frenzy.” That strikes some as too high in a year with few gubernatorial races and — unlike in 2008 — no contest for the Democratic presidential nomination. “I don’t think it’s going to be a whole lot bigger than 2010,” says Jack Poor, who tracks political spending for the Television Bureau of Advertising. “If I were to take a wild guess, I’d say 10%.”

Will cable operators take political ads from broadcast TV? Hope springs eternal among cable companies. They say that their ability to target messages to communities makes them more cost effective than TV stations that transmit to a large region. But politicos don’t seem to agree. “If you add those (local) areas up it isn’t necessarily less expensive than (it is) to buy the whole market” on broadcast TV, former Obama political advisor David Axelrod told cable executives recently. Former Republican National Committee Chairman Ed Gillespie says much the same thing: “If the president has $1 billion to spend, he’ll buy American Idol and NCIS. And our candidate will be buying the Cooking Channel in Akron, Ohio.” Cable executives say they may have to eat those words. “I don’t know what (Axelrod) is talking about,” says Andrew Capone of NCC Media -– the local cable ad sales firm owned by Comcast, Time Warner Cable and Cox. “Every single year more money has flowed to spot cable.”

What about the Internet? Candidates are intrigued. Locally focused sites “will see a significant increase from a low dollar base,” says Kathleen Keefe, Hearst Television’s VP of sales. Read More »

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Report: TV Will See “An Unprecedented Frenzy” Of Political Ads In 2012

By DAVID LIEBERMAN, Executive Editor | Tuesday June 21, 2011 @ 8:42am PDTTags: 2012 Presidential Race, Advertising, Moody's Investors Service, Political Advertising, TV Advertising

The 2012 election campaign has barely begun, but broadcasters can expect to see “an unprecedented frenzy of political advertising,” with total sales running as much as 18% higher than the $2.3 billion spent in 2010, Moody’s Investors Service says in a report today. The U.S. Supreme Court has tossed out spending caps for corporations and unions, making this the first presidential election in more than a decade without such limits, the research firm says. “The campaign frenzy will get some of its oxygen from high-visibility headline issues, including a weak domestic economy, high unemployment and a continued slump in real estate,” Moody’s says. “Control of Congress is also in close contention.” Republicans “may possibly view the Senate to be within their reach in 2012.” Read More »

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Cable Show: Ad Sales May Be Hurt By Economic Woes And Concerns About Effectiveness, Execs Warn

By DAVID LIEBERMAN, Executive Editor | Wednesday June 15, 2011 @ 10:31am PDTTags: Advertising, Fox News, MSNBC, NCTA, Political Advertising, President Barack Obama, The Cable Show, TV Broadcast vs Cable

Ad sales are improving for cable but they may not pop as much as many in the industry had hoped, according to information presented at this morning’s opening session of the National Cable & Telecommunications Association’s annual trade show. ”The jury’s still out on what the economic outlook will be in the second half of the year,” Horizon Media CEO Bill Koenigsberg said. Although cable execs say that unit prices for their upfront sales are running about 11% higher than last year, Koenigsberg says “clients now are cautious. I don’t think the barometer of the upfront is a forecast for the future.” Initiative’s Tim Spengler added that he’s “cautiously optimistic” and has seen “no signs of a pullback yet.” The ad execs said that clients may warm to cable once they have a clearer sense of how many people watch their spots, what screens they they watch them on, and how viewers respond to the commercials. “Measurement is not keeping up with the technology,” Mediavest’s Bill Tucker said. “Getting data across screens is the new frontier, and we’re not there yet.” Koenigsberg says that in about six months the industry should have “a true consistent measurement that we can trade on.”

The advertisers followed a panel about the 2012 election on which President Obama political adviser David Axelrod said that broadcasters, especially local TV stations, will continue to receive the lion’s share of campaign ad dollars. Read More »

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‘Glee’ Enters Illinois Political Fray With Ad

By NELLIE ANDREEVA | Monday October 25, 2010 @ 10:58am PDTTags: Glee, Political Advertising, TV, TV Advertising, Video
Nellie Andreeva

It is the zeitgeist show at the moment, so it was probably inevitable that politicians would turn to Glee in their campaigns for the November elections. A new ad for Illinois Governor Pat Quinn, which represents a full-court assault on his Republican challenger, Bill Brady, is virtually a carbon copy … Read More »

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