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Japanese scientists have divined a mathematical model for what they call “The Hit Phenomenon.” By calculating the advertising budget of a film before it’s released, along with the amount of time a campaign runs and its word of mouth quotient on social media, a team from Tottori University worked to predict the success of such films as Spider-Man 3 and Avatar and then compared their findings to actual box office. “They appeared to match very well, meaning the calculations could provide a fairly good prediction of how successful a movie could be even before it is released,” said the Institute of Physics, which published the paper in the New Journal of Physics today. The scientists used the model to calculate the likelihood of an individual going to see a movie in a Japanese theater over a period ranging from 60 days ahead of a movie’s release to 100 days after the opening. Although the study was based on the Japanese market, its lead author, Akira Ishii, told Agence France Presse he thinks the model is “very general. It will work in other countries as well.” He also noted a key benefit of the formula is that companies can calculate the best time to spend advertising dollars. Hollywood could soon get its chance to plug in the formula as AFP says there are hopes to make it commercially available.
The Hit Phenomenon?: Japanese Scientists Create Model To Predict Box-Office Success
Sony Registers Record Loss, But Expects Return To Profit
Posting a record loss of $5.7B for the fiscal year ended March 31, Sony today reported a quarterly loss of $3.2B. However, the company also expects a return to profit, predicting that net income for the fiscal year … Read More »
‘Spider-Man’ Ride Amped Up At Universal Orlando
Universal Orlando Resort today celebrated the reopening of “The Amazing Adventures of Spider-Man”, one of the world’s most popular theme park experiences. The attraction now features enhancements including all-new 4K digital high-definition ride animation, a new highly-sophisticated Infitec 3-D projection system, a new music score, and all-new 3-D Spider-Vision glasses:
Kapow! EPIX Pre-empts Stan Lee Documentary Before Slamdance Debut
EXCLUSIVE: While we wait for the offers on Sundance films like The Words, Celeste and Jessie and others to turn into deals, the other Park City festival, Slamdance, has scored a good one. EPIX is closing a preemptive deal for … Read More »
Report: Studios Should Prepare For “The Death Of Superheroes”
It may be indelicate to make this argument just as thousands of fantasy fans are converging on San Diego for the annual Comic-Con. But the movie business may soon find itself mourning “the death of superheroes,” Susquehanna Financial Group’s Vasily … Read More »
COMIC-CON: Some Film Studios Sitting Out
Deadline Comic-Con Movie Contributor Luke Y Thompson reports:
It’s the story every media outlet is dying to tell every year: “Comic-Con just ain’t what it used to be.” This year, however, the event — set for July 21-24 at the San Diego Convention Center — comes with some alarmist (and circumstantial) evidence: Warner Bros won’t be doing a movie presentation. Marvel Studios won’t be either, even though the tiniest teaser for The Avengers last year made for the most memorable panel. Disney initially appeared absent too. So what’s going on? Did the failure of Scott Pilgrim to triumph at the box office following a massive Con promotion last year leave studios leery?
Well, you’d think if that were the case, Universal would feel the most burned — yet they’re doubling down by holding the premiere of Cowboys and Aliens there, inviting many of the fans to attend; one would imagine the big names like Harrison Ford and Daniel Craig will at least attend.
Disney, which now owns the Muppets and Marvel Studios, is likely saving those properties for its own D23 Expo in Anaheim toward the end of August. They are, however, bringing the DreamWorks pickup Fright Night to Comic-Con (in presentation and screening form) — notably, this is a movie that will open Aug. 19, the same day the D23 Expo begins, so it makes sense to hype it sooner. Colin Farrell, Anton Yelchin and Christopher Mintz-Plasse are the big names attending; curiously, the publicity has consistently downplayed the presence of former Doctor Who star David Tenant, and he has not been mentioned as attending, though he’d be given a hero’s welcome if he did.
Warner Bros’ lack of a movie panel may largely be due to the fact that the next Superman and Batman movies aren’t ready to show much yet — Man of Steel star Henry Cavill will be there, but on behalf of Relativity’s Immortals (also Luke Evans, Kellan Lutz and Mickey Rourke; director Tarsem Singh is not currently expected). Certainly WB is showing a ton of TV previews, but I’ll leave that to my colleague Gary Hodges to discuss. The biggest question mark in my mind is what Time Warner-owned Entertainment Weekly will put on the cover of their Comic-Con issue now: traditionally, it’s been a big reveal from a Warners movie.
The biggest name being batted about right now as a possibility is Steven Spielberg, to present footage from his The Adventures of Tintin: The Secret of the Unicorn. Certainly, a Tintin presentation would be wise, as the teaser has left many (myself included) highly skeptical. The fanbase needs persuading, and since it’s Spielberg, there’s probably at least one kickass scene that can get people hyped. But Paramount’s still playing things close to the vest — when I asked a publicist there about Comic-Con plans, I was told “It’s uncertain what or if we’re bringing anything.” That’s not a denial. And there has been talk of a Captain America screening — whether that translates into an actual panel is uncertain, as the regular press junkets and such will already be in full swing for the movie, opening that week. Read More »
‘Spider-Man’ Takes Another Night Off
It’s another dark night at Broadway’s Foxwood Theatre for Spider-Man: Turn Off The Dark. After a cancelled performance Tuesday, previews were supposed to resume tonight but the stage crew and performers took an extra day to incorporate the extra safety procedures designed to eliminated the variables that led to an … Read More »
2nd UPDATE: Spider-Man Back In Previews Wednesday Night
2ND UPDATE: A spokesman for the musical said that preview performances will resume tomorrow night. “Occupational Safety and Health Administration, Actors Equity and the New York State Department of Labor have met with the Spider-Man company … Read More »
In First Deal, Sony Buys Contemporary ‘Frankenstein’ For Matt Tolmach
EXCLUSIVE: In the first project he has set at Sony Pictures Entertainment since exiting the co-president post to become a producer, Matt Tolmach is at the center of a preemptive pitch deal for Frankenstein. The film will be a contemporary … Read More »
Laura Ziskin Awarded 2011 Visionary Award By Producers Guild
The Producers Guild of America has named Laura Ziskin to receive its 2011 Visionary Award. The honor will be presented at the 22nd annual Producers Guild Awards ceremony January 22. Ziskin is being honored not just for a body of … Read More »
Martin Sheen Lands ‘Spider-Man’ Role And Sally Field May Be Next
Martin Sheen is joining the Marc Webb-directed 3D Spider-Man movie, playing the role of Uncle Ben. He joins Andrew Garfield, Emma Stone and Rhys Ifans, who were set earlier in the Sony Pictures Entertainment film that begins production in December. … Read More »
Emma Stone In Spidey — But With Switch!
Sony Pictures just confirmed Emma Stone for the female lead in Spider-Man. The surprise? While days ago both the studio and her reps expected her to take the role of Mary Jane Watson, she has instead closed to play Gwen Stacy, Peter Parker’s first love. Here’s the studio release:
CULVER CITY, Calif., October 5, 2010 – Emma Stone has been cast as the female lead in the upcoming Spider-Man film from Columbia Pictures and Marvel Studios, it was announced today by Amy Pascal, co-chairman of Sony Pictures Entertainment and Matt Tolmach, president of Columbia Pictures. Stone has been tapped for the role of Gwen Stacy opposite Andrew Garfield as Peter Parker. The film, to be directed by Marc Webb from a screenplay by James Vanderbilt and produced by Avi Arad and Laura Ziskin, will begin production in December and will be released in theaters nationwide in 3D on July 3, 2012. The casting continues an association between Sony Pictures Entertainment and the actress
‘SPIDER-MAN’ UPDATE: Emma Stone To Be Offered Role Of Mary Jane Watson
UPDATE: Sony Pictures Entertainment will imminently offer the role of Mary Jane Watson to Emma Stone, who starred for the studio in Zombieland and Easy A. It’s another good role for Stone, who is currently shooting the Tate … Read More »
Reliance Bringing Universal Studios Theme Parks To India?
The Wall Street Journal reports that Reliance ADA Group is negotiating with Universal Studios to replicate its movie-themed amusement parks in India. The result would be a $1.5 billion new park that covers 400 acres –in either New Delhi or … Read More »
New ‘Spider-Man’ Andrew Garfield Latest Twist To Reboot Tired Franchise
Hollywood has newly minted its next star, and it’s baby-faced Andrew Garfield. [UPDATE: I’m told Garfield’s pay scale on the film is around $500,000 salary on the first film, $1 million for the second one, and $2 million … Read More »
Sony Pictures Selects New ‘Spider-Man’; He’s 26-Yr-Old Brit Actor Andrew Garfield
New ‘Spider-Man’ Latest Twist To Reboot Tired Franchise
CULVER CITY, Calif., July 1, 2010 – After a comprehensive worldwide casting search, Andrew Garfield has been chosen to portray Peter Parker
Sony Views Screen Tests Of ‘Spider-Man’ Finalists; Decision Expected Shortly
EXCLUSIVE: Sony’s Columbia Pictures is getting closer to finding its new Spider-Man. I On Friday, studio decision-makers viewed the screen tests of most of the young actors they are seriously considering to play Peter Parker in the Marc Webb-directed relaunch of Spider-Man.
I’m … Read More »
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